The Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Haitong Securities released a research report commenting on the price data of the United States in October 2022. The team believes that inflationary pressures remain high. The U.S. CPI and core CPI both declined year-on-year in October. On the one hand, this is related to the relatively high base in the same period last year; on the other hand, it is also related to the continuous recovery of the global industrial chain and the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, in absolute terms, the current level of inflation remains at the highest level in nearly 40 years.
From a structural point of view, core commodity inflation is the main drag, and core service inflation pressure is still high. Core goods continued to fall year-on-year in October, falling below core service inflation for the first time since November 2021. While core services inflation is still on the rise, prime rental inflation remains high.
Looking ahead, U.S. inflation may be trending, but at a slower pace. We expect that by the end of the year, the US CPI will still be above 7% year-on-year, and the core CPI will still be close to 6% year-on-year. Considering that the U.S. economy is still resilient, the Fed’s rate hike may last longer than expected against the backdrop of still-high inflation. Even if the Fed gradually stops raising interest rates after the first half of next year, the high interest rate environment may last longer than expected. Therefore, the Fed’s policy influence will continue.