ROME. In June, inflation accelerated again, rising to a level (8%) that had not been recorded since January 1986, when it was 8.2%. Istat data reveal this in preliminary estimates. In May it was 6.8%. The consumer price index also recorded an increase on a monthly basis, of 1.2%. “Inflationary tensions continue to spread from Energy Goods”, whose growth passes from + 42.6% in May to + 48.7% and in particular in non-regulated energy such as fuels (from + 32.9% to +39 , 9%). Regulated energy continues to record very high but stable growth at + 64.3%.
According to Codacons, the rise in inflation represents a “blow” to consumers and will have “very heavy effects not only on the pockets of families, but also on the national economy”. The 8% inflation rate translates to the same consumption, according to Istat, in higher expenditure equal to +2,457 euros per year for the “typical” family, which reaches +3,192 euros per year for a household with two children. «Our worst forecasts are unfortunately confirmed – says the president of Codacons Carlo Rienzi -. We are in the presence of a real national emergency that will have heavy effects on the economy and on the economic conditions of families “.
Retail prices are destined to rise again in the coming weeks as a consequence of the escalation of fuels which are recording very high levels at the pump and of the obvious speculations on the lists, and inflation is destined to reach 10%. “Faced with these numbers, the Government no longer has an alibi, and must urgently intervene to save the pockets of families and businesses by immediately blocking the prices of energy and fuels”.
Work: the number of “inactive” people rises
In May – then reveals Istat – the number of employed and unemployed fell, but the number of inactive people rose, reaching 34.8%, slightly exceeding the pre-pandemic levels. After the strong growth recorded between February and March and the substantial stability in April, in May the number of employees fell below 23 million, due to the decrease in permanent employees. This figure – however, the Institute notes – is in any case about 460 thousand units higher than that of May 2021.
Leading the increase, in more than half of the cases, are the temporary employees who arrive, overall, to exceed 3 million 170 thousand, the highest value since 1977. In general, therefore, the employment rate drops to 59, 8% (-0.1 points). A decrease that affects both genders, permanent employees and people between the ages of 25 and 49. On the contrary, employment increases for the self-employed, temporary employees, the under-25s and the over-50s. The decline in the number of job seekers (-2.1%, equal to -44 thousand units compared to April) also involves both men and women and extends to all age groups except 25-34 year-olds. . Finally, the unemployment rate falls to 8.1% overall (-0.1 points), reaching 20.5% among young people (-2.1 points).
On the other hand, the discourse on inactive people is different: in general they increase between the ages of 15 and 64 (+ 0.4%, equal to + 48 thousand units), but they are mainly men and 25-34 year-olds. Numbers that, according to Confcommercio, mark “a significant setback for the labor market”. Although the cyclical decline in the number of employed persons is of limited entity “it is accompanied by a more substantial contraction of people seeking employment and an increase in inactive, substantially by the same amount”. These three data, read together, seem to highlight “a phase of discouragement that reduces the number of those who are offered on the market, probably also due to forms of temporary misalignment between supply and demand in relation to professional profiles, qualifications and / or entry salaries” .
It is still too early to give it a definitive reading – whether we are talking about recovery or possible stagnation – and in fact the Research Office warns: “The next few months will be decisive for establishing the short-medium term prospects for the Italian economy” . The unions are also uneasy. “Our job market is a continuous swing,” said Ivana Veronese, UIL confederal secretary, stressing that “it is not enough to say that the PNRR will take care of it”, but instead a proactive effort from politics is needed to stem the precariat. Especially for young people for whom it is necessary to “enhance the apprenticeship contract”, a theme that in fact was at the center of today’s meeting with the Minister of Labor and Social Policies, alongside the fight against “the abuse of internships” by monitoring its quality and their employment opportunities.
According to the secretary general of UIL, Pierpaolo Bombardieri, the numbers “confirm that this country only produces precarious work”. “We – he adds – continue to ask the government to intervene immediately, we continue to propose a Spanish model. They keep talking about pacts and we keep saying “let’s do it like Spain’s”, let’s eliminate fixed-term contracts ».
Ugl’s leader, Paolo Capone, warns: “After two years of pandemic, the country cannot afford a new economic crisis that threatens to undermine social cohesion.” Full employment must be “a fundamental objective” to be pursued, explains the secretary general, “through active policies, skills upgrades to accompany the digital transition, infrastructural investments with a high GDP multiplier and expansive measures to support growth”. Also because, Capone points out, the prospects for the next few months “risk worsening further”, burdened by the weight of the war and the impact on the prices of raw materials and food products.