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The ZEW economic expectations are an important leading indicator for the economy in the coming six months, comparable to the Ifo business expectations. The ZEW regularly surveys around 300 experts from banks, insurance companies and the finance departments of large companies. The ZEW indicator thus captures the mood among German financial experts.
The turbulence at some US banks and at Credit Suisse had sparked fears that banks were becoming more cautious about lending in general. This makes it more difficult for companies to access financing for investments, in addition to rising interest rates. Private households are also affected. This is shown by new figures on housing construction in Germany.
In February only the construction of 22,300 apartments was approved in Germany. This was 20.6 percent less than a year ago, the shared Federal Statistical Office with. Since May 2022, the number of building permits has decreased every month. The main reason for the decline in construction projects is high cost of building materials and increasingly poor financing conditions due to higher interest rates.
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According to the Bundesbank, industry and construction increased their production sharply in January. The construction mainly due to the mild weather. Adjusted for price increases, however, exports recovered only partially. In addition, persistently high inflation is slowing down consumer spending in Germany.
In addition to the expectations for the next six months, the ZEW also asks about the assessment of the current situation. The value for this sub-indicator also fell, from minus 45.1 to minus 46.5 points. The assessment of the current situation points to a recession. Now the expectations that this dent can be overcome quickly have also dampened.
The expectations for the economy in the euro zone also deteriorated in March from 30 to just ten points.
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Rising interest rates are causing increasing uncertainty in the German economy. The mood threatens to turn negative again.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment – an important leading indicator for economic development in the coming six months – surprisingly fell in April.
The fear of a credit crunch due to high interest rates and the uncertainty resulting from the banking turbulence are causing concern.
Rising interest rates are increasingly affecting the mood of the German economy. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, an important leading indicator fell from 13 to just 4.1 points in April, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim announced. This came as a nasty surprise to the markets. Analysts had expected an average increase to 15.6 points. The index had already collapsed in March after five increases in a row.
ZEW President Achim Wambach wrote that the experts surveyed remained unsettled. “On the one hand, they expect banks to be more cautious about lending. On the other hand, the still high inflation rates and the internationally restrictive monetary policy are a burden.” It is positive that the danger of an acute crisis on the international financial markets is no longer seen.
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Your privacy settings prevent the loading and display of all external content (e.g. graphics or tables) and social networks (e.g. Youtube, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram etc.). To display, please activate the settings for social networks and external content in the privacy settings .
The ZEW economic expectations are an important leading indicator for the economy in the coming six months, comparable to the Ifo business expectations. The ZEW regularly surveys around 300 experts from banks, insurance companies and the finance departments of large companies. The ZEW indicator thus captures the mood among German financial experts.
The turbulence at some US banks and at Credit Suisse had sparked fears that banks were becoming more cautious about lending in general. This makes it more difficult for companies to access financing for investments, in addition to rising interest rates. Private households are also affected. This is shown by new figures on housing construction in Germany.
In February only the construction of 22,300 apartments was approved in Germany. This was 20.6 percent less than a year ago, the shared Federal Statistical Office with. Since May 2022, the number of building permits has decreased every month. The main reason for the decline in construction projects is high cost of building materials and increasingly poor financing conditions due to higher interest rates.
read too
According to the Bundesbank, industry and construction increased their production sharply in January. The construction mainly due to the mild weather. Adjusted for price increases, however, exports recovered only partially. In addition, persistently high inflation is slowing down consumer spending in Germany.
In addition to the expectations for the next six months, the ZEW also asks about the assessment of the current situation. The value for this sub-indicator also fell, from minus 45.1 to minus 46.5 points. The assessment of the current situation points to a recession. Now the expectations that this dent can be overcome quickly have also dampened.
The expectations for the economy in the euro zone also deteriorated in March from 30 to just ten points.
read too