International oil prices have fallen for two consecutive times, and the demand outlook is sharply bleak. The main problem lies with the provider FX678 in the region.

On Friday (August 13), international oil prices fell for the second consecutive day. Earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that with the surge in global new crown cases forcing governments to restore travel restrictions, the growth in demand for crude oil and oil products has slowed sharply.

At 15:53 ​​Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.62% to 68.66 US dollars per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.48% to 70.97 US dollars per barrel.

With Western holidaymakers driving on the road, gasoline inventories in Europe and the United States have fallen to near pre-epidemic levels, but the end of the peak driving season and the spread of the Delta new crown variant virus may slow the recovery of global oil demand. In Asia, where the vaccination rate is only about 30%, the overall fuel inventory is still high. The rapid increase in the number of new crown cases in some parts of Asia has led to new restrictions on the movement of people.

The IEA said on Thursday (August 12) that due to the spread of the Delta variant virus, the upward trend in oil demand suddenly reversed in July, and the pace of recovery is expected to be slower before the end of the year. He also pointed out: “The growth in the second half of 2021 has been further downgraded because the new epidemic prevention restrictions imposed in several major oil-consuming countries, especially Asian countries, seem to reduce the movement of people and oil use.”

Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for OANDA Asia Pacific, said: “The sudden change in IEA’s attitude has shaken the market’s nerves and limited the rise in oil prices, making people aware of the actual impact of the Delta mutant strain.”

JPM Commodities Research said: “We now expect the recovery of global demand to stagnate this month. Oil demand in August reached only 98.3 million barrels per day, and the average in September was 97.9 million barrels per day, which is the same as the July average of 98 million barrels per day. The day is flat.”

Lars van Wageningen of Insights Global said: “It will be interesting to see what will happen to fuel demand and the number of Delta cases in the next few months. The situation in some countries is still unstable, and we cannot say that all countries have fully recovered. .”

In stark contrast, despite rising concerns about the surge in the new crown infection rate, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday insisted on its forecast for a rebound in global oil demand this year and further growth in 2022.

In its monthly report, OPEC also raised its expectations for the supply of other oil producers next year, including US shale oil producers, which may hinder the efforts of the organization and its allies (that is, OPEC+) to achieve market balance.

Caroline Bain, chief commodity economist at Capital Economics, said in a report: “Although OPEC maintains its demand forecast unchanged, we believe that the near-term demand outlook has deteriorated, which may mean that the organization will Downgrade its supply plan.”

Goldman Sachs has reduced its short-term global oil gap forecast from 2.3 million barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day, as demand will fall in August and September. But leaving aside the unfavorable factors of the Delta virus, Goldman Sachs still expects that the demand recovery will continue as the vaccination rate rises.