Intesa Sanpaolo Queen of the Stock Exchange after the reassurances issued by the same bank led by Carlo Messina, on its ability to meet the targets relating to shareholder remuneration.
The Italian bank issued a statement on Friday evening, following the press rumors reported by theBloomberg agencywhich had caused the share to slip by around 2%, in the face of buys on the shares of other Italian banks.
Today comeback of the action, which is confirmed as the best of the shares traded on the Ftse Mib of Piazza Affari.
The rumors spread by Bloomberg, which had fueled doubts about Intesa SanPaolo’s ability to honor the commitments made on the front dividends and buybacks, they had referred to a possible plan by the bank aimed at cutting risky assets worth around 20 billion euros, in order to comply with the ECB’s dictates.
The rumors had also aired the hypothesis of one ‘synthetic securitization’.
Thus Equita SIM today, in taking stock of the situation, summarizing last Friday’s rumors and the trend of the stock:
“Following Bloomberg rumors that ISP is conducting loan and other asset disposal transactions to reduce its RWAs by up to 20 billion, following a more stringent approach required by the regulator on internal models, the company – through a press release – specified that:
- RWA reduction actions implemented in the fourth quarter they relate to regulatory changes applicable from the beginning of 2023.
- A fine 2022, the group CET1 is expected to be around 13%, continuing to include the impact of the $1.7 billion buyback (12.4% as of Q3 2022)
- Subsequently (following the application of the regulatory changes) CET1 is expected to remain at levels well above the 12% target indicated in the plan.
Equita remember that “During the year, Intesa SanPaolo had already taken steps to implement RWA optimization operations. In particular, the company had communicated credit risk protection operations for 5.9 billion in the first 9 monthsto which would be added – as noted by an article in Il Sole dated 13/01 –securitizations for a further c.9bn”.
The Milanese SIM expressed his view on Intesa as follows:
“We judge Intesa SanPaolo’s press release positively, as it provides clarity on the evolution of the trajectory of capital and at the same time gives further visibility on the ability to defend the remuneration of shareholders”.
LAWS
Intesa SanPaolo: Ce1 Ratio and dividends, the bank’s details
Intesa SanPaolo and Italian banks: the rumors about the ECB
It must be said that, on Thursday, Il Sole 24 Ore had reported some rumors, according to which
the ECB would detected the presence of problems in the risk models of several Italian banks, thus leading them to cut assets in order to preserve capital cushions.
This is how Equita always summarized in a note released at the end of last week:
“According to what was reported by Il Sole 24 Ore, the ECB Supervision – as a result of inspections carried out on supervised institutions – he allegedly asked Italian banks for a ‘prudential’ review of internal credit risk rating models. The revision would lead to an increase in RWAs, which – according to rumors – would result in impacts at the CET1 level ranging from a minimum of 20-30bps up to over 50bps”.
In the note reporting the rumors of the Confindustria newspaper, it was underlined that the institutes“in order to minimize the impact on capital, they would have already undertaken a series of corrective maneuvers aimed at optimizing i RWA”.
Equita SIM also pointed out at the same time that “Italian banks are characterized by high levels of capital combined with good asset quality (average NPE Ratio < 4%)which to date is not yet showing concrete signs of deterioration” and indicated that“within the sector”, continued “to prefer those names which, in addition to having a good exposure to interest rates, are characterized by lower risk in terms of the cost of credit and are endowed with a high capital endowment, which makes it possible to contain the impacts of regulatory revisions”.
The choices among bank stocks were listed:
“Among the large caps our favorite names are UCG, MB and BAMI (UniCredit, Mediobanca and Banco BPM)CE (we think) among the mid-smalls”.
Speaking of dividends and buybacks, the topic was addressed last week by the CEO of the other Big Bank of Italy, UniCredit, i.e. from Andrea Orcel, on the occasion of several speeches on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
In an interview with Bloomberg Television Andrea Orcel said he believes that UniCredit may have room to disburse to shareholders, both in the form of coupon distributions and with buyback transactions, remuneration on 2022 profits higher than those of 2021.
Definitely, Italian banks would be in better conditions than what the rumors would be fearing.