Source: Donghai Futures Author: Donghai Futures
Research report text
background analysis:
Spot market: Stainless steel spot in Wuxi on November 16 (304/2B2.0 volume price): Hongwang invested 17,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. Stainless steel spot in Foshan (304/2B2.0 volume price): Hongwang invested 17,270 yuan/ton, unchanged.
Core logic:The main force of stainless steel 2212 closed at 17055 yuan / ton yesterday afternoon, up 1.1%. Macroscopically, U.S. retail sales in October recorded the largest monthly increase since February this year. The economy is still strong. hike.
The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in October in the UK hit a new high since 1981. The governor of the Bank of England said that further interest rate hikes are still possible; China’s monetary policy implementation report for the third quarter mentioned that housing should be firmly adhered to and not speculated.
Fundamentally, the production schedule of steel mills in November remains high; Shandong Xinhai’s annual production of 1.62 million tons of stainless steel projects is put into operation, and it is expected to gradually increase in volume from November to December; big.
Demand, downstream demand is still light, terminal purchase willingness is still weak, traders mostly maintain low inventory. Inventory, strong supply and weak demand, accumulated pressure on storage is still there.
On the cost side, ferronickel factories and steel mills are playing games, ferronickel remains stable, ferrochrome shipments are willing to increase, ferrochrome is weak and stable, and the overall support on the cost side is insufficient. In summary, the macro optimism is expected to fade, the fundamentals are still weak, and steel prices are short on rallies.
Operation suggestion:Short rallies.
Risk factors:Indonesia’s policy disturbances and destocking exceeded expectations.
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