(Original title: The major stock indexes in the global stock market rose first and then fell during the holiday. The size of the US Treasury bond is approaching the upper limit. The three departments interviewed some photovoltaic companies and industry institutions)
The price of photovoltaic industry chain has continued to rise since 2021. The latest quotation of upstream polysilicon is 297,300 yuan / ton, which has been rising for 9 consecutive months, which is several times compared with the low point of less than 60,000 yuan / ton in 2020.
During the National Day holiday, the peripheral stock markets generally rose first and then fell. Overall, the major stock indexes in the Asia-Pacific region performed better than those in Europe and the United States. The Nikkei 225, the Australian S&P 200, the Korea Composite Index, and the Hang Seng Index were among the top gainers this week. The European and American stock indexes retreated on Thursday and Friday. The stock index has fallen by more than 3% in the past two trading days, and the French CAC40 and German DAX indexes also fell by nearly 2%.
In terms of news, on October 7, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the U.S. non-farm employment data for September. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in September fell for two consecutive months, recording 263,000, the highest since April 2021. The smallest increase, but still higher than market expectations of 250,000 people.
Affected by the news, the three major U.S. stock indexes dived across the board on Friday, with an intraday drop of more than 3%. In addition, spot gold fell by $20 in the short-term, once approaching $1,690 per ounce, and spot silver fell more than 2% intraday. In addition, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds rose after the report was released. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond once rose by more than 8 basis points and closed at 3.888%.
China Merchants Securities Research Report believes that the data combination of low unemployment rate and job vacancy rate in September reflects that the current cooling method of the U.S. labor market is still more in line with the Fed’s expectations, that is, companies reduce vacancies without substantial improvement. layoffs. The year-on-year growth rate of the unemployment rate and hourly wages has both dropped, which means that the Fed still needs to raise interest rates sharply in the short term, but the road to interest rate hikes may not go very far.
The size of the US national debt is again approaching the debt ceiling
During the National Day holiday, the size of the US national debt exceeded 31 trillion US dollars. Xinhua News Agency reported that the latest data released by the U.S. Treasury Department showed that as of October 3, the outstanding U.S. federal government debt was about $31.1 trillion, including about $24.3 trillion in debt held by the public and about 68,000 in intergovernmental debt. billion dollars, which has greatly exceeded the US gross domestic product of about 23 trillion dollars last year.
A research report released by the U.S. Bipartisan Center for Policy Research shows that the federal government has hit the then-$28.9 trillion debt ceiling at the end of October 2021. Since then, the U.S. Treasury Department has taken unconventional measures to avoid debt defaults until the U.S. Congress passed legislation in December that year to raise the debt ceiling to $31.4 trillion. In less than a year, the U.S. federal government’s debt has reached $31.1 trillion, leaving only $300 billion in “quota”.
The three departments collectively interviewed some photovoltaic enterprises and industry organizations
On October 9, the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology was released. According to the relevant requirements of the “Notice on Promoting the Coordinated Development of the Photovoltaic Industry Chain and Supply Chain” jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Energy Administration, in order to further guide the coordinated development of the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry, the three departments concerned On the basis of organizing the cooperation and docking of the photovoltaic industry chain and supply chain, the business department has recently interviewed some key polysilicon enterprises and industry institutions, and guided relevant units to strengthen self-discipline and self-examination and standardized management.
The responsible comrades of the relevant departments said that the price of products in some parts of the domestic photovoltaic industry has continued to rise sharply recently, causing severe shocks in the industrial chain and supply chain, including the complex international trade environment, the repeated impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the substantial increase in downstream demand, and the construction cycle of each link. Differences and other reasons, there are also some companies hyping up prices, individual practitioners hoarding and other factors. In the next step, relevant departments will further strengthen work coordination, strengthen supervision and management, and strengthen investigation and crackdown on illegal activities such as price gouging, monopoly production and sale of counterfeit and shoddy products in the industry.
The data shows that the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has continued to rise since 2021. The latest quotation of upstream polysilicon is 297,300 yuan / ton, which has been rising for 9 consecutive months, which is several times compared with the low of less than 60,000 yuan / ton in 2020. The Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association issued a notice on September 8 that the price of some supply chains continued to fluctuate and rose, impacting the stable operation of the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry, so the release of polysilicon prices was suspended.
According to statistics from Securities Times·Databao, the stock prices of listed companies in the photovoltaic industry generally corrected in September, with an average drop of 9.47%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4 percentage points. Dike shares, HT-SAAE, and Mingguan New Materials all fell by more than 20% in September. Junda shares, Kehua data, and Kestar rose against the trend, with a cumulative increase of more than 15%.
In terms of performance, among the concept stocks, only TCL Zhonghuan released the first three quarters performance forecast. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.93 billion to 5.07 billion yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 78.53% to 83.6%. The main reasons include the successful commissioning of the Ningxia Zhonghuan Phase VI project. , the advanced production capacity has been accelerated, the product structure has been optimized, and the G12 strategic products have significant market advantages, improving the overall profitability under the fluctuation of the supply chain.
In terms of valuation, the latest price-earnings ratios of photovoltaic concept stocks such as Shanmei International and TBEA are all lower than 10 times.
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