Malay domestic consumption is not much, palm oil has limited room to boost again | Soybean Oil_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Donghai Futures Author: Donghai Futures

Research report text

[1. Core logic]: The MPOB report is generally bullish. At present, the price difference of international bean dumplings has shrunk sharply.palmThe export potential of oil is limited, such as the domestic accumulation is more obvious, the output and export in the later period are expected to maintain a state of double chain decrease, the domestic consumption in Malay is not much, and the room for further boost is limited, and it will be around seasonality in the later stage until the first quarter of next year Production reduction and origin inventory destocking are the main theme transactions. During this period of time, the macro demand is expected to be strongly supported, and the supply contradiction is expected to become more prominent when the demand for crude oil improves, and the tug-of-war with the reality of recession is also difficult to unilaterally market. U.S. soybean oil is still strongly supported by cost. These have strong support for the horse palm. The downward pressure on the basis of domestic palm oil accumulation is not synchronized with the upward drive of destocking in production areas. Palm oil doesn’t point the way for fat. The storage cycle of vegetable oil and soybean oil also lacks bullish themes, and there is little room for seasonal market demand and stocking. The overall oil or maintain a narrow range.Pay attention to the purchase and storage of vegetable oil, andsoybean mealUnder the pullback, the market for soybean oil was boosted.

【2. Operation suggestion】: wait and see

【3. Risk factors】: weather factor

【4. Background analysis】：

overnight futures: On December 13, soybean oil in the CBOT market closed up, and the U.S. soybean oil 01 contract rose 1.97 or 3.17% to close at 64.17 cents/lb. Palm oil in the BMD market closed up, with palm oil 01 up 82 or 2.13% to close at MYR 3,932/ton.

inventory data: As of December 9, 2022 (the 49th week), commercial soybean oil stocks in key areas across the country were about 743,400 tons, an increase of 5,050 tons or 0.68% from last week. Commercial palm oil stocks were about 999,500 tons, an increase of 20,700 tons, or 2.11%, from last week; commercial palm oil stocks increased by 470,800 tons, or 89.05%, year-on-year in the 47th week of 2021. (mysteel)

MPOB: In November, Malay output decreased by 7.3% month-on-month, and exports increased by 0.9% month-on-month. The export of 1.47 million and the output of 1.68 million were lower than expected, and the output increased by only 2.8% year-on-year. The impact of rainy weather is quite obvious. Imports were slightly lower than expected. Domestic consumption increased by 14.7% month-on-month and 17.8% year-on-year. The absolute level of 330,000 is at a historical high in the past five years, 40,000 higher than the expected high value. Inventory was 2.29 million, a decrease of 4.8% month-on-month. The de-warehousing service was slightly more than expected, and the export that was less than expected was replaced by domestic consumption.

high frequency data：

SPPOMA: From December 1 to 10, 2022, Malaysia’s palm oil production per unit area will decrease by 1.90%, the oil yield will increase by 0.06%, and the output will decrease by 1.58%.

SGS: Malaysia is expected to export 473,086 tons of palm oil from December 1-10, an increase of 15.71% from the 408,867 tons exported in the same period in November.

ITS: Malaysia’s palm oil export volume from December 1 to 10 was 492,960 tons, an increase of 5.57% from the 466,943 tons exported in the same period in November.

AmSpec: Malaysia exported 480,404 tons of palm oil from December 1 to 10, an increase of 14.25% from the 420,477 tons exported in the same period in November.

spot market: On December 13, 47,300 tons of soybean oil and 800 tons of palm oil were sold in major regions across the country. The total turnover increased by 19,400 tons or 67.59% compared with the previous trading day. (mysteel)

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