Source: Founder Medium-Term Futures Author: Founder Medium-Term Futures
The text of the research report
【Market review】
Futures market: On Monday, ethylene glycol rose, and the EG2301 contract closed at 3,975 yuan/ton, up 2.63%, and lightened up 30,900 lots.
Spot market: Ethylene glycol rose, and the spot price in the East China market was 3968 yuan/ton.
【Important Information】
(1) From the perspective of the supply side, the new plant was put into operation, and the supply rebounded slightly. In terms of installations, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 3# 800,000-ton unit was reduced to 80-90% on November 14 for some reason; CNOOC Shell’s 400,000-ton unit was scheduled to be shut down for maintenance from December due to efficiency problems.
It was reported on November 7 that the 1.8 million-ton new plant in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, of which two sets of 600,000 tons have been successfully operated, and the other set of 600,000 tons is scheduled to start operation at the end of this month.
The 400,000-ton plant of Xinjiang Guanghui was shut down on November 3, and the restart is to be determined; the 300,000-ton plant of China Salt Red Sifang was shut down for maintenance on November 2. As of the week of November 10, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 56.39% (+1.13%).
(2) From the demand side, due to high inventory pressure and weak cash flow, polyester factories are under great pressure and are expected to weaken in the later period. The new orders of the terminal dropped significantly, and the load of the loom and the texturing loom weakened one after another, and gradually negative feedback to the upstream of the industry chain. On November 14, the operating rate of polyester was 78.06% (-0.17%), and the production and sales of polyester filament was 60.9% (+6.7%).
(3) From the perspective of inventory, according to Longzhong statistics, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China on November 14 was 823,700 tons, compared with 26,300 tons on November 10. From November 14th to November 20th, the arrival volume of the main port in East China is expected to be 175,000 tons.
【Arbitrage Strategy】
On November 14, the spot basis was -7 yuan / ton, and the basis was high.
【Trading straregy】
Driven by the macro atmosphere, ethylene glycol continued to rise, but from the perspective of supply and demand, there is an expectation that supply and demand will weaken marginally, dragging down the price trend. Mainly short. Pay attention to subsequent device changes due to benefit issues.
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