Source: Huatai Futures Author: Huatai Futures
The text of the research report
Market analysis:
On September 15, the closing price of the main DCELPG futures contract was 5,522 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous day. Futures market prices fluctuated.
From the perspective of the crude oil market, the international oil price fell sharply yesterday. Although the fundamentals of crude oil itself are relatively strong, the macro impact is still ongoing. Or maintain the pattern of violent fluctuations, which will disturb the prices of LPG and other energy chemicals.
From the perspective of LPG’s own fundamentals, the overall supply at home and abroad is relatively abundant. Recently, both domestic refinery production and imports have shown a growth trend, which has brought certain pressure to the market. But at the same time, the consumption of combustion gas is gradually improving with the seasonality, and the new PDH production has also formed a certain support for the rigid demand for propane raw materials. Therefore, in the short term, the LPG market has limited drive.
Spot market prices go up and down. From the perspective of the northern region, the price of domestic gas in Shandong has been steadily lowered, and the atmosphere has improved only slightly. After ether, carbon 4 continued to decline. Under the restraint of oil products, manufacturers’ shipments took the lead.
The price of civil gas in North China remained stable, the market production and sales atmosphere was mild, and the short-term mainstream continued to stabilize; the price of raw gas was partially lower, and the downstream atmosphere was weak. The Northeast LPG market continued to deliver stable shipments today. At present, the shipments are stable, and the seller’s inventory pressure is not large, but the overall momentum is insufficient.
From the perspective of the southern region, the South China liquefied gas market held steady sales today, with some regions falling back, and the number of ships arriving in the region increased compared with the previous period. The East China LPG market saw smooth transactions at low levels today. The weather has weakened, and the overall market has improved. There is still pressure on individual highs. It is expected that tomorrow will still be shipped first, and sellers will consolidate according to the warehouse.
Strategy:The short-term drive of the market is limited, and attention is paid to the opportunity of more PG main contracts on dips.
risk:The consumption season changed from low to high season, the international oil price fluctuated, and some production units were overhauled.
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