Northern foundations in the field for the success ofcapital increase of MPS of 2.5 billion euros: operation started last Monday 17 October which is not going the right way. Today shares risk a recovery, in the wake of the latest rumors that see the world of foundations as the protagonist, but the trend of the last sessions, together with that of option rights, it was definitely negative. So much so that the value of the shares in Piazza Affari has also fallen below the 2 euro threshold, factor that further distances market operators from a possible idea of subscribing to the capital increase: why do it, since it is definitely better to buy the stock in Piazza Affari?
Yesterday the Monte dei Paschi stock closed down by 2.01% to € 1.95: which means that the bank is worth 20 million.
Even worse, the option rights, who suffered a thud equal to -76.2% to 0.2 euros, expanding the losses to -97.5% from the day they landed on the stock market.
Practically, the value of the option rights goes towards zero, confirming how the capital increase of Mps has not aroused an interest on the part of potential investors. With Borsa Italiana applying an adjustment factor of 0.20837017, last Monday the new shares went to Piazza Affari at the theoretical value of € 2.063, while the option rights at € 7.837.
The last day of joining the capital increase is October 31, 2022: times are running out, and there is the risk of a flop. Flop that, in the immediate term, would have repercussions above all on those thousands of employees who have submitted voluntary exit applications.
Compared to the 3,500 employees previously estimated, Monte employees who want to flee the Sienese bank are 4.125, of which 4,005 for the MPS group and 120 as extra group secondments.
In the last few hours, the bank headed by Luigi Lovaglio has announced that it has “A positive orientation” towards the requests of the trade unions having as their object the full acceptance of the requests for exit. But the positive orientation is subordinated to the success of the capital increase. And this was stated yesterday by Lovaglio when he gave the ok to incentivized exodus: positive orientation, he said, “without prejudice to the completion of the process linked to the capital increase and the decisions that will be taken by the Board of Directors in this regard, together with the definition of the management plan for the replacement of colleagues linked to the corporate reorganization “. Having said that, after a meeting with the trade unions, MPS – the unions themselves reported – “he communicated his intention to start the administrative regularization process in the meantime with regard to all colleagues proposing the application “.
Andrea Lisi of Equita SIM summarizes in a note the news on the recapitalization of Monte di Stato (as a bank whose majority shareholder is the State, the Treasury):
“As reported by various press articles, MPS would be available to accept requests for voluntary exits exceeding the plan targets, considering that, compared to 3500 expected exits, 4125 applications were received. Provisions for voluntary departures, which will weigh on MPS’s 2022 accountsare therefore expected to increase from the 800 million envisaged in plan a just under 1 billion, compared to cost savings on personnel now seen at c. 300 million per year (from the previous 270 million) “. Lisi adds that, “In the meantime, as regards the capital increase, as reported by MF and Il Sole 24 Ore, the participation of the Compagnia di San Paolo, Cariplo, Fondazione CRT and Fondazione CRC is expected for a total amount that could reach Approximately 45 million “.
An article from de The Couriernaming precisely the names of Cariplo, Crt and Compagnia di San Paolo, foundations which would be joined by others, “At work to evaluate the re-capitalization of the institution”.
Il Corriere continues, underlining that, “If the consultations are successful – since there are still differences in the individual boards – the amount that the large northern banking foundations will subscribe to as part of the MPS capital increase should already be known today. It was a weekend of intense exchanges between CEO Luigi Lovaglio and these entities that now seem willing to get involved “.
In particular, “the Compagnia di San Paolochaired by Francesco Profumo, who is also at the top of Acre “.
The foundation “Would be studying the legislative limits of participation, given that its stake in Intesa Sanpaolo, both direct and managed, 34% of the assets are worth (the Acri-Mef protocol binds the investment of one’s wealth to no more than 30% on a single asset, in this case the credit one) “.
A possible commitment of the Northern Foundations would join that of the Tuscan Foundations:
“CariFirenze and Siena with 10 million each, Carilucca with 7, Pistoia with 3” and the foundations would eventually fill the role of sub-guarantor of the capital increase of the Monte dei Paschi di Siena. Which means that they would join the audience of investors who have exposed themselves to cover, of the 900 million private capital that MPS had to rake in, a sum of 500 million in case of unopted, or of failure to subscribe for the shares.
Among them there are bondholders who have shopped for Tier 2 bonds of the bank and who certainly do not want to risk that the capital increase would flop: in that case, burden sharing would be triggered. Funds in particular would be sub-guarantors – according to what Il Sole 24 Ore reported in recent days -, “Like Pimco, BlueBay, Malquart, which overall will bring out a figure close to 200 million” and also key investors Axa (for about 200 million), Algebris, Denis Dumont, Andrea Pignataro (Cedacri and Cerved).
These funds and investors, together with the foundations, would undertake to intervene with approximately 500 million unopened. And if this sub-guarantee were not sufficient, they would intervene the banks of the consortium Mediobanca, Credit Suisse, BofA, Citi, Credit Suisse e i joint bookrunner SocGen, Sitfel, Santander e Barclays.
For the Foundations, the choice is certainly not simple: if it is true that history teaches, their participation in the rescue of MPS would risk being a disaster similar to that which, as the Espresso branded it a few years ago, “The credit disaster”.
The reference was to the six billion euros of foundations burned who had joined the Atlante Fund.
The same banks Intesa SanPaolo and UniCredit they had paid not a little the contributions paid to the Atlante fund for the rescue of the Venetian banks and to put the Italian banking system back on track.
Returning to the banking foundations that could lock Mps, The messenger has published an article in which he reveals that there are ten foundations ready to support the capital increase, for a contribution of up to 70 million, in addition to those who have already announced their participation.
“In the next few hours, 10-11 entities should decide on participation in the capital strengthening of Siena“- we read in the Roman newspaper which adds that, after the commitment of the foundations of Florence, Mps, Lucca, Pistoia and Pescia for a total of 30 million, equal to approximately 2% of the capital, “Since yesterday the Compagnia di SanPaolo, the first shareholder of Intesa SanPaolo with 6.12%, has also entered the Palio game: the management committee has approved an investment of approximately 10 million”.
Then making it known that “today will be the turn of Cariplo Foundation, Intesa’s second shareholder with 5%, Crt, present in the share capital of UniCredit (1.65%) and Banco BPM (1.8%) and probably Cuneo, Intesa shareholder (0.6%) after the merger with Ubi ”.
There would also be an interest in participating on the part of the foundation of Modena, which owns 0.51% of UniCredit, as well as of the foundation of di Forlì (0.2% of Intesa), and of Cariverona, which is present in UniCredit (1.8%), and Banco BPM (0.6%).
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