On Friday (September 16), international oil prices fell. Despite the uncertainty on the supply side, the oil market continues to face bearishness due to concerns that the Federal Reserve’s sharp interest rate hikes will drag down economic growth and hit fuel demand, and the U.S. dollar strengthens. NYMEX crude oil is expected to fall to $80.02.
At 16:08 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.76% to $84.00 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.66% to $89.02 per barrel.
The U.S. dollar index rose to a fresh nearly seven-session high of 110.268, as data showed underlying inflation widened and fears of a global recession grew. Investors are bracing for a U.S. interest rate hike next week.
Leon Li, analyst at CMC Markets, said: “The intraday rise in oil prices can only be seen as a short-term rebound, as the Fed will raise rates by at least 75 basis points next week. Although the probability of a 100 basis point hike is relatively small, it will give market sentiment a boost. There is uncertainty, so there is still a downside risk for oil prices next week.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects almost zero growth in oil demand in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve is even willing to weaken the US economic growth in order to combat high inflation. The market is therefore jittery and oil fundamentals remain bearish.
CMC’s Li added that oil prices could face an energy crisis in the fourth quarter as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) are likely to discuss production cuts at their October meeting and Europe faces an energy crisis due to uncertainty over Russian oil and gas supplies. be supported.
On the daily line, NYMEX crude oil is in a downward wave iii that starts from $90.19, and is expected to fall below the 38.2% target of $83.90 and drop to the 61.8% target of $80.02. Wave iii is a sub-wave of wave (iii) that started down at $97.66. Wave (iii) is a sub-wave of the descending ((c)) wave that started at $123.68. Wave ((c)) is part of the corrective 4 wave that started at $130.50.