Positive inflation in the United States has digested short-term copper price adjustments Nickel_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Baocheng Futures Author: Baocheng Futures

Research report text

【copper】

Intraday view:Weak shock

Medium term view:rise

Reference strategy:Go long on dips

Core logic:The positive inflation in the United States has been digested, and the short-term copper price has fallen back and adjusted. The supply of domestic mines is loose, and the port inventory is at a historically high level. The production of electrolytic copper in November is expected to remain stable at a high level. The pricing power lies in the macro and demand. In terms of macroeconomics, domestic and foreign macroeconomics continued to pick up. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper products such as refined copper rods dropped slightly last week. We believe that in November, the supply will be stable, and the marginal demand will be weak, and the electrolytic copper will continue to be stockpiled. As of November 21, Mysteel’s sample electrolytic copper stock was 103,300 tons, compared with 310 tons last week.Inventory and warehouse receipts have dropped this week, pay attention to the support of low inventory and high rising water in the previous periodShanghai CopperWhether the strong logic is maintained. CU2212 has technically broken through the shock range, and the upper space has been opened. The current copper price has returned to the top of the previous shock range after a continuous decline, and there will be some support. It is recommended to maintain a long-term thinking and do long on dips at 64000-64500.

【Zinc】

Intraday view:Weak shock

Medium term view:Oscillating reference strategy: holding empty orders

Reference interval:23000-24500

Core logic:Last week, with the digestion of short-term macro benefits, non-ferrous metals ushered in a correction, and the logic of zinc’s industrial fundamentals began to play a role. Domestic mines continue to be loose, SMM’s zinc ingot output in October is in line with expectations, and the output in November is expected to be 516,700 tons; the weekly output of galvanizing plants rose at a high level last week. As of November 21, Mysteel’s sample zinc ingot stockpile was 47,800 tons, which was 450 tons compared with last week’s destocking, a decrease of nearly 60% compared with the same period last year, and the overall stockpile was lower than expected. From a technical point of view, Lunzinc is at the 3200 line, and Shanghai Zinc is under pressure at the 24500 line, and the 24500 line is the top of the ZN2212 shock range. In the short term, it is recommended that ZN2212 be shorted in the 24200-24500 range.

【nickel】

Intraday view:strong shock

Medium term view:shock

Reference strategy:Go long on dips

Core logic:The recent macro recovery at home and abroad combined with strong downstream demand is conducive to the upward trend of nickel prices. On the supply side, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, the mines have a strong willingness to raise prices, and domestic nickel mines are limited, resulting in a firm price of ferronickel, which supports the price of electrolytic nickel to a certain extent. However, in the fourth quarter, the reflow of ferronickel from Indonesia impacted the domestic supply of ferronickel, and the overall supply of nickel elements will tend to be loose.On the demand side, stainless steel in OctoberThe strong production of nickel sulfate and nickel sulfate promotes the consumption of pure nickel, and the production of nickel sulfate is expected to continue to grow in November. Although the proportion of pure nickel in the raw materials of the two is relatively small, low inventory and high capital attention have given nickel upward flexibility. In recent months, before the last trading day of the contract, there has been a phenomenon that the futures price has subsidized the water, and the nickel price has dropped with the end of the delivery. It is recommended to operate in the range of 195,000-205,000.

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