Production reduction combined with high quality fruit rate, apple spot is expected to remain high before the year_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Minmetals Futures Author: Minmetals Futures

Research report text

Spot goods:As of November 17, the weighted transaction price of paper bag Fuji 80# and above in Shandong area for the first and second grades this week was 3.53 yuan/catties, which was the same as last week; the weighted transaction price of paper bag Fuji 70# starting semi-commodities in Shaanxi was 3.60 yuan/catties this week, Compared with last week, the price increased by 0.08 yuan/catties; the price of Shandong Qixia 80# primary and secondary stripes was 4 yuan/catties, which remained stable.

The rate of high-quality fruit combined with production reduction is relatively high, and fruit farmers have no willingness to actively lower prices, while merchants are not willing to lower prices due to high purchase prices. The spot price is expected to remain high before the year.

Inventory and production situation:According to the statistics of the Steel Federation, as of November 17, the nationalappleThe inventory was 8.3385 million tons, an increase of 126,800 tons from last week; Zhuo Chuang data showed that as of the week of November 17, the national apple cold storage inventory was 8.7643 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons from last week.

The growth rate of inventory is slowing down. We expect that the peak of inventory may have arrived, and the total inventory is expected to be flat or slightly lower year-on-year, which is at a slightly low level in the middle of this year.

Shipping situation:According to the statistics of Steel Union, as of November 17, the weekly turnover of Red Fuji apples in the national wholesale market was 19,574 tons, a decrease of 474 tons from last week.

This week, the delivery of terminal goods has slowed down. The epidemic situation in various parts of the country is severe, and travel is restricted. Most of the transactions are concentrated in the sources of cost-effective goods, and the transactions of high-priced goods and large fruits are average. Given the high purchase price this year, the market is pessimistic about the consumption of apples in the next year, and it is generally expected that there will be a certain loss in inventory.

Other market hot issues:Whether the storage has reached the peak value. According to the current storage data of Steel Union, the inventory ratio in Shaanxi and Gansu has begun to decline, while Zhuo Chuang’s data shows that the storage is still going on, so pay attention to the data next week. The situation of passive storage by fruit growers. The epidemic situation in the production area was serious in the early stage. Whether some fruit growers passively entered the storage and were not counted in the inventory data.

summary:The fundamentals have not changed much, and consumption and inventory are still in the game. In terms of inventory, we tend to think that the peak inventory has basically appeared, and the subsequent increase is limited.

Production reduction combined with a high rate of high-quality fruit, the spot stock is expected to remain high before the year, the cost of warehouse receipts is relatively high, and the cost of receiving goods has a strong support for recent months. However, under the higher purchase price, the downstream acceptance is average, and the market generally predicts that the inventory may lose money, suppressing the valuation in the distant months. The short-term market is close to the lower edge of the shock range and there are signs of stopping the decline, so you can try to buy more on dips and wet positions.

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