Other than marriage Mps-UniCredit, Banco BPM-Bper, or three-way merger Mps-UniCredit-Banco Bpm:
the best banking risk would be a marriage between Mediobanca and Banca Mediolanum, especially in light of the umpteenth climb by Leonardo Del Vecchio in the capital of Piazzetta Cuccia.
A Citi report has already written it, even speaking of the two institutes as gods Betrothed Renzo and Lucia.
Today the hypothesis is taken up by an article published in La Stampa, which bears the signature of Francesco Spini. With reference to Mediobanca and Mr. Luxottica’s maneuvers, the newspaper writes that, “once the possibility of annexing Banca Generali has vanished, the market – but the trajectory is indicated by the plan of CEO Alberto Nagel – expects new steps on the asset management. There is no shortage of speculations and above all look at the possible interest in a merger with Banca Mediolanum. Citi did so in a recent report, which compares the two institutes to the Renzo and Lucia of Italian finance ”.
The Mediobanca share, in the wake of the rumors, stands out above the Ftse Mib, confirming itself as the best share, with an increase of more than + 1%, in a session that is confirmed as rather flat; Banca Mediolanum is under pressure, down by half a percentage point at 11.35 am Italian time.
Among other titles, little move Mps (+ 0.26%), ditto UniCredit and Bper, Banco BPM more solid.
It is worth noting, however, that for some time many have pointed out that Leonardo del Vecchio’s true prey is General.
Citi: Mediobanca and Banca Mediolanum, are they the Betrothed?
Mf-Milano Finanza also spoke about the Citi report:
“Mediobanca has a solid equity history, with high return on capital opportunities, superior profitability and, in addition to the positive momentum of the corporate and investment bank and consumer credit, it records strong growth in wealth management. A study by Citi dedicated to Mediobanca and with a significant title (The Betrothed?) Starts from these premises to paint a scenario in which the bank led by CEO Alberto Nagel could marry another player who could be Banca Mediolanum. Citi confirms the buy judgment on the Piazzetta Cuccia stock with a target price of 11.5 euros “.
La Stampa, recalling that report in which “Citi recognizes Mediobanca”great return on capital opportunities, superior profitability “in addition to a” solid policy “in terms of sustainability”, he wonders if all this “will be enough to justify the 2 billion invested by Del Vecchio over the past year (in Mediobanca)”. Or if the patron di Luxottica has “other designs, such as a merger with Unicredit “.
And even one merger between UniCredit and Mediobanca it had been talked about, even if at the beginning of May the CEO of Mediobanca, Alberto Nagel, had sent back to the sender lhypothesis of the wedding.
“In finance, all fantasies are legitimate and also interesting. From an industrial point of view, I believe it is a combination that does little to both of us ”, Nagel said, answering a question he was asked during the call to comment on Mediobanca’s financial results for the first quarter of the year.
The hypothesis of an M&A operation between Piazza Gae Aulenti and Piazzetta Cuccia had come through a Deutsche Bank simulation reported by an article in Il Sole 24 Ore in March:
“Deutsche Bank’s theoretical simulation sees UniCredit launch a takeover bid on Mediobanca with a premium of 25%, valuing it 11.4 euros per share which implies a multiple price / tangible capital of 1.2 times with a cash component of 25% (2.8 euros per share) and the remaining 75% in shares ( 1 UniCredit share for each Mediobanca share). The impact on UniCredit’s Cet1 would be ‘manageable’ with a dilution of -20 bps from 12.8% to 12.6% “.
In this way, the Confindustria newspaper pointed out, UniCredit could have permanently download Mps, even if the dowry of the Treasury would have been decisive, which was then seen, with the Sostegni bis Decree, however much less rich compared to the figures circulated in the previous weeks.
In referring to Del Vecchio’s 2% stake in UniCredit and its takeover in Mediobanca – which last week took another step forward, bringing Del Vecchio’s stake to within a whisker of threshold authorized by the ECB, lhe article in the Sun saw in Luxottica’s patron a sort of link between Mediobanca and UniCredit.
Citi, on the other hand, sees the one between Mediobanca and Mediolanum as a possible ideal marriage. On the other hand, Del Vecchio now has Mediobanca in his hand and with his threshold that he has, through Delfin, he could certainly begin to move some pieces, perhaps replacing the board of directors of Piazzetta Cuccia. At the same time, La Stampa does not waive the option of a Mediobanca-UniCredit merger.