Original title: Ruida Futures: Even the oil and fat oversold and rebounded, the weakest performance of vegetable oil Source: Ruida Futures
Disk situation: The rapeseed contract transaction is deserted and it is not suitable for operation. Rapeseed meal 2109 contract +0.46%, the highest futures price was 2838 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2797 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2809 yuan/ton; the transaction volume was 845815 lots, the open interest was 408724 hands, -8349 lots; RM9-January spread +168 yuan/ton. Vegetable oil 2109 contract -0.04%, the highest price of the futures price was 9680 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 9476 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9598 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 416,498 hands, and the open interest was 133,959 hands, -6436 hands; the OI9-1 contract spread +271 Yuan / ton.
Market quotation: According to the data of the world granary, the spot price of imported rapeseed oil (including imported rapeseed pressing) is 10,040 yuan/ton, +140 yuan/ton, and the spot of rapeseed is 2858/ton, +20 yuan/ton.
Daily warehouse receipts: 0 for vegetable oil warehouse receipts, 0 for the day, and 0 valid forecasts; 2068 for rapeseed meal warehouse receipts, -133 for the day, and 0 valid forecasts.
Position changes: the top 20 long positions of rapeseed oil mainstream funds reported 135666 lots, -1861 lots, the top 20 short positions reported 136829, -2750 lots, and the net short position was 1163 lots; the top 20 long positions of rapeseed mainstream funds reported 281457 hands, -4567 hands, the top 20 short positions reported 338853, -7027 hands, and the net short position was 57396 hands.
News: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rapeseed futures closed higher on Friday, as bargain-hunting buying entered the market after hitting the lower limit the day before. As of the close, the November rapeseed contract closed up 27.60 Canadian dollars at 694.00 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January rapeseed contract closed up 25.80 Canadian dollars at 693.70 Canadian dollars per ton.
Summary: Technically, the rapeseed contract is lightly traded and trading is not recommended. Rapeseed meal: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)SoybeansFutures closed sharply higher on Friday. Chinese importers bought at least 480,000 tons of U.S. soybeans last Friday due to low buying and new export demand after the sharp drop in the previous trading day. Under the condition of sufficient soybean supply in domestic oil plants, the operating rate is relatively high.Soybean mealProduction is relatively large, while demand is relatively weak, inventories have rebounded significantly, and improved US crop weather will boost the prospects for US soybean production, and the Federal Reserve meeting issued signals to tighten liquidity, US soybean prices fell, cost support weakened, and soybean meal prices fell. Rapeseed meal prices weakened. In terms of the fundamentals of rapeseed meal, domestic rapeseed has been on the market one after another, and the supply of rapeseed meal has increased. In addition, the stock of pelleted rapeseed meal at the port is relatively sufficient. However, the price of aquatic products is better, the farming profit is higher, and the downstream seedlings are more active. The overall aquaculture consumption tends to increase, which is conducive to boosting the demand for rapeseed meal. The overall supply and demand contradiction between rapeseed meal is not prominent. On the disk, the Rapeseed Meal 09 contract fell below the 60-day moving average and continued to fall, and the MACD green column grew. The short-term trend is weak. It is recommended that the Rapeseed Meal 2109 contract continue to be treated with a bearish mindset.
In terms of rape oil: US crop weather has improved, the Biden administration is considering reducing the pressure on refiners on biofuel blending, and the Federal Reserve meeting issued a signal to tighten liquidity, so US soybean oil is under pressure. Although the decline in the export of horse palm has narrowed, the increase in output has been greater, which is difficult to offset the pressure on the supply side. Horse brown prices are also limited. In terms of vegetable oil fundamentals, the overall stability is maintained, and short-term oversupply still exists. Downstream demand is weak, and the willingness to purchase is not strong. Other alternative oils are used to replace them. The overall vegetable oil inventory has rebounded. On the disk, the overall performance of oils and fats is an oversold rebound, but the continuity of the technical rebound has yet to be confirmed. Among the three major oils, rapeseed oil performed the weakest and is expected to remain weak in the short term. It is recommended that rapeseed oil 2109 continue to sell on rallies in the short term.
(Source: Ruida Futures)
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