Ice-free more and more often: Russian icebreaker in the Arctic North Sea. Getty Images
Russia has long been campaigning for the northern route through the Arctic to be established as an alternative to the southern route through the Suez Canal in trade between Asia and Europe.
As a result of climate change, passage through the Arctic is ice-free for longer and longer, or at least possible with icebreakers. The attacks by the Houthi militias in the Red Sea are now revitalizing the discussion.
The Northern Passage would be significantly shorter than the Suez route. But there are still many uncertainties and, above all, dangers for the sensitive Arctic environment.
For Russia, it is a long-held dream: As a result of climate change, the shortest sea route between Asia and Europe – the Northeast Passage through the Arctic – could become permanently navigable. The Northeast Passage would then be an alternative to the southern route through the Suez Canal. For years, Russia has been expanding its infrastructure with high investments. With nuclear-powered icebreakers and new ports. As a result of sanctions over the Ukraine war, Russia has already been shipping more oil to China via the northern route. After the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Russia has now brought the Northeast Passage back into discussion. It could be an alternative to the Suez Passage, Russia’s Arctic Ambassador Nikolai Korchunov told the Russian news agency Ria Novosti.
But how realistic is that? What would be the benefits of a Northern Passage? What would be the disadvantages and risks? And what is the status?
Northeast Passage: shortest sea route from Europe to Asia
The route between the Barents Sea north of Scandinavia and the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska is, at around 5,500 kilometers, the shortest sea route between Asia and Europe. “For transport between Shanghai and Rotterdam, the Northern Sea Route shortens the distance by about 3,000 nautical miles compared to the Suez route and by 6,200 nautical miles compared to the Cape route,” write scientists Kemal Akbayirli and Gokcay Balci in a contribution to ‚The Conversation‘. It first appeared in German at Macronom. “This would shorten the journey time between East Asia and Northern Europe to 18 days (via Suez it currently takes 32 days).”
The researchers point out another advantage: the ships travel through the Arctic at lower speeds. “Depending on the speed and type of fuel used, a cargo ship on the Northern Sea Route could 40 percent less fuel consume and cause up to 80 percent fewer emissions than on the Suez route.”
If it weren’t for the ice cream. The Northeast Passage is currently only navigable to a limited extent. Usually only between July and November. And even then, cargo ships need the company of icebreakers. “In 2021, only five icebreakers were deployed on the Northern Sea Route, by 2030 there will be neun be,” write the scientists.
In addition, the very large ships with 20,000 containers cannot travel on the northern route, as they do through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Currently only ships with a carrying capacity of around 5,000 containers sail on the northern route in summer.
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According to Kemal Akbayirli and Gokcay Balci, the environmental balance is not as much better as the pure energy balance suggests. They are reminiscent of the accident of the oil tanker Exxon Valdez. In the sensitive Nordic ecosystem, some species have not returned even 25 years after the disaster. In addition, exchanging the ships’ ballast water poses the risk that foreign species will be introduced.
“Despite these challenges, Arctic shipping traffic is increasing,” write the two researchers. “Between 2013 and 2017, the volume of freight traffic on the Northern Sea Route increased from 2.8 million to 10.7 million tons, and in 2023 it will have grown to 36.2 million tons.”
There is no end to the growth in sight. The number of escorts in the Russian icebreaker fleet is expected to increase from 1,218 to 1,747 this year.
Russia is expanding its infrastructure with the “Development of the Northern Sea Route” project so that the annual cargo in the Northeast Passage can be reached by By 2023 it will rise to 270 million tonnes can.
The Northern Sea Route cannot yet handle the number of ships or the volume of cargo passing through the Suez Canal. However, the passage off Russia’s coast could become a real alternative in the future.
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