Source: Sinosteel Futures Author: Sinosteel Futures
Research report text
【logic】
Macro disturbances have intensified. On the one hand, domestic real estate policy adjustments have been lower than expected. The Central Economic Conference reiterated that “housing should not be speculated”, emphasizing support for rigid and improved demand, restraining speculative demand, and preventing risks and asset-liability conditions of top real estate companies On the other hand, the Bank of Japan has rarely raised interest rates, global financial market volatility has intensified, and infections in various regions of the country have entered a peak period. The stagnation of production and life has affected the recovery of terminal demand, and the short-term black sentiment has declined.
【Supply side】
worldwideiron oreShipments from Shibatia have rebounded significantly. Australia’s shipments to China hit a new high this year. Brazil’s shipments have stabilized and rebounded. (December 12-December 18) The total iron ore shipments of Mysteel Australia, Brazil, and Port 19 were 27.315 million tons, an increase of 3.048 million tons from the previous month. Australia shipped 20.25 million tons, an increase of 1.754 million tons from the previous month, of which Australia shipped 18.119 million tons to China, an increase of 3.151 million tons from the previous month. Brazil shipped 7.066 million tons, an increase of 1.295 million tons from the previous month. The total global iron ore shipments totaled 32.857 million tons, an increase of 3.490 million tons from the previous month. (December 12-December 18) China’s 47 ports arrived at a total of 26.516 million tons, an increase of 1.415 million tons from the previous month; The total amount was 11.787 million tons, an increase of 488,000 tons from the previous month.
【Demand side】
The profitability of steel mills remains low, and the output of molten iron is at a staged low level. (December 16) Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 75.97%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous week, and an increase of 7.97% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 82.64%, an increase of 0.63% from the previous month, and an increase of 8.36% from the same period last year; The profit rate of steel mills was 21.65%, a decrease of 0.87% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 59.74%; the average daily hot metal output was 2.2288 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons month-on-month and an increase of 237,700 tons year-on-year.
【Inventory】
The volume of arrivals at the port has rebounded, the volume of port evacuation has continued to rise, and port inventories will continue to accumulate. (December 16) According to Mysteel statistics, the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 13,398.78, an increase of 14.16 from the previous month; the average daily port volume was 310.05, an increase of 6.80. In terms of weight, Australian mines increased by 127.11 at 6263.51, Brazilian mines decreased by 80.31 at 4857.07; trade mines increased by 38.17 at 8073.47, pellets at 543.25 decreased by 14.56, fine powder increased by 12.32 at 1103.06, lump ore increased by 27.38 at 2037.69, coarse powder decreased by 10.98 at 9714.78; the number of ships in Hong Kong was 89 14 bars down. (Unit: 10,000 tons) According to Mysteel statistics, the total stock of imported iron ore in 47 ports across the country was 140.6878 million tons, a decrease of 328,400 tons from the previous month, and the average daily dredging volume of 47 ports was 3.2725 million tons, an increase of 119,000 tons from the previous month.
【View】
Short-term demand for iron ore continues to be low, and steel mills are driven by speculative atmosphere to properly replenish their warehouses. The short-term supply side has rebounded significantly, and port inventories will continue to accumulate. The 05 contract more reflects expectations, and short-term strong expectations have failed. Weak, short-term futures prices are expected to remain weak.
【Later attention/risk factors】
The peak speed of the epidemic, the shipment of mainstream mines, and the strength of steel mills to replenish their warehouses.
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