The idea that solid-state batteries are due to the high energy density brought by solid-state is completely wrong, and its higher safety level also cannot withstand scrutiny.
“The day when solid-state batteries are popularized is when fuel vehicles will withdraw from the stage of history.”
This is a saying that was circulated in the new energy industry many years ago. Frank Blomei, head of Volkswagen’s battery center, even called solid-state batteries the “final chapter” of lithium-ion batteries, and the end of energy equipment before the civilian use of controlled nuclear fusion.
It seems that whoever can take the lead in creating solid-state batteries and realize their large-scale commercialization will obtain the “holy grail” of lithium battery technology, become the decryptor of the energy cube, and the overlord of the global new energy industry.
It is against this background that global new energy practitioners, analysts and investors are frantically chasing this direction. American start-up companies represented by QuantumScape and Solid Power, Japanese automobile and chemical giants such as Toyota, Nissan, and Panasonic, as well as some Chinese companies in the field of electrochemical materials, have joined the competition in the field.
QuantumScape (QS for short) is one of the representative companies, and the investors behind it are also a strong lineup, including Volkswagen Group and Bill Gates. QS has lived up to expectations. Before going on the market in 2020, QS has verified that their single-layer battery can maintain 90% of the initial energy storage after 1000 charge-discharge cycles at a rate of 1C at room temperature and pressure. At the same time, QS announced that they have cooperated with Volkswagen to start the construction of the production line, which is expected to be put into production in 2025. This satellite directly pushed up the stock price of QS by 10 times.
However,After the carnival, more and more people raised doubts. After all, single-layer batteries are still far away from practical applications. Even if the technical problems are solved, whether they can be commercialized is still a problem.
The inorganic oxide solid electrolyte layer used by QuantumScape is more than 10 times heavier than the traditional lithium battery separator. Due to the low ionic conductivity of the solid electrolyte, it affects the discharge rate and performance under low temperature conditions. The company had to add no less than 20% by mass of oxide on the positive side of the battery to provide ionic conductivity.
The increase of these inactive substances reduces the energy density of the battery. Some senior experts in the industry told Pinjia that the energy density of QuantumScape batteries is difficult to exceed 350Wh/kg, which cannot widen the gap with the mainstream traditional high-end lithium battery products. They want to achieve solid-state battery theory The peak level of energy density is even more difficult.
In fact,It is completely wrong to think that solid-state batteries are due to the high energy density brought by solid-state. The key to really improving battery energy density is to use silicon or lithium metal anodes. These two negative electrodes are also being used in liquid batteries to increase energy density.
on the other handThe higher safety level of solid-state batteries cannot withstand scrutiny.It is generally believed that the solid-state electrolyte has good insulation, is non-flammable, and is non-volatile. Even if it is deformed, it will not cause electrolyte leakage. However, the safety of physical properties is only one aspect of battery safety, and the high risk of any other aspect may make the electrolyte leak. Solid equals unsafe.
A study by the U.S. Department of Energy found that the temperature of all-solid-state batteries due to short-circuit caused by lithium dendrites is higher than that of traditional lithium-ion batteries, and the heat release may cause fire through flammable packaging or other nearby materials; and when solid-state When the integrity of the electrolyte layer is damaged due to various reasons, the reaction will release huge heat. Interestingly, QuantumScape’s Halloween event has had someone pretend to be a lithium dendrite-shaped monster for many years.
lithium dendrite
What is more worthy of attention is that the oxide sheet electrolyte used by QuantumScape is too hard, and gel electrolyte has to be added to improve the interface, which will reduce the intrinsic safety of solid-state batteries. In particular, due to the very small critical current density of metal lithium deposition, the oxide sheet will be prone to short circuit in future use.
QuantumScape was also coy about battery safety late last year, when the company barely made its first prototype solid-state batteries and delivered them to automotive customers, founder, CEO and chairman Jagdeep Singh mentioned the reliability of these battery products ” There is still a lot of room for improvement.”
QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh Source: Financial Times
Not only that, but there are still many problems in mass production that have not been resolved. Although the oxide-based electrolyte material has better stability in the air, it has high requirements on the manufacturing process, and it needs high temperature sintering above 800 degrees Celsius to be densely formed. For the preparation of large-sized, ultra-thin and defect-free ceramics The process has extremely high requirements, which brings greater challenges to the large-scale manufacturing of batteries.
In terms of production environment and raw material purity, all-solid-state batteries have higher requirements than traditional lithium batteries. It may be difficult to produce large-scale electrolyte films in batches. Therefore, the initial mass production of all-solid-state batteries may only be produced on a small scale for some areas with higher cost tolerance. The SNE report of South Korea’s new energy research institute pointed out that even in the mass production stage, the cost of all-solid-state batteries is at least twice that of lithium-ion batteries, which runs counter to the “cost reduction” pursued by the new energy vehicle industry.
In the carnival feast of solid-state batteries, the smartest capital is the first to calm down.Also at the end of last year, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas released a research report, downgrading QS from “wait and see” to “underweight”, and lowering the target price from $12 to only $4, a new low on Wall Street. Reasons include uncertain timelines for scale-up and OEM approval, as well as a more difficult financing environment for companies. Adam Jonas said that while solid-state batteries may still represent the future of energy storage, the road to this goal has proven to be more difficult and farther than we and the market expected.
Due to the continuous dehydration of the market value, the stock price fell from a high of 132 US dollars to 7 US dollars today, and QS company also began to lay off employees, which seems to have entered the “bottom of bubble burst” of Gartner’s technology maturity curve. As a result, the bubble surrounding this once dark horse began to collapse.
While QS is still struggling in the dilemma of technology and capital, the American new energy vehicle brand Fisker has announced that it will abandon its plan to develop solid-state batteries and instead launch ordinary electric vehicles equipped with liquid lithium-ion batteries. Many may recall that in 2018, the company said it would mass produce solid-state batteries within months. Now the founder of the company can only use this explanation to cover up the original embarrassment, “Solid state battery is a kind of technology, when you feel that you have completed 90%, almost reached the goal, and then you realize the remaining 10% % is much more difficult than the previous 90%.”
Bounce is a key word in Toyota’s solid-state battery story. Toyota, which has been betting on the gasoline-electric hybrid route in terms of new energy, has been lagging behind in pure electric technology, and has always hoped to overtake cars by laying out solid-state battery technology early. Its layout of solid-state batteries can be traced back to 2008, when the company announced that it would cooperate with the British start-up company Ilika to jointly develop solid-state battery materials.
Ten years have passed, and Toyota has at least seven or eight partners in solid-state batteries, and even has accumulated more than 1,300 patents in this area, which is far ahead of the four Japanese and Korean companies ranked 2-5. It is a pity that the difficulty from technology to mass production is no less than a journey from the west. At an event called the “2030 Battery Strategy Conference” the year before last, Toyota stated that the research and development progress in high-energy-density all-solid-state batteries was not optimistic, and it had not been able to break through the key issue of suitable sulfide electrolyte materials.
Image credit: Toyota
Under the background that technical difficulties cannot be overcome, Toyota has to postpone the mass production of all-solid-state products again and again. It stated in 2019 that it will launch a new energy model equipped with solid-state batteries at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. However, even if the Olympic Games are postponed One year has given Toyota more time, and consumers still have not been able to wait for solid-state batteries to be equipped with models. At the same time, it has chosen a promising route in terms of commercialization: to put solid-state battery technology into hybrid vehicle products first, rather than for pure electric vehicles in one step.
Considering that electrification, especially pure electrification, has formed an irresistible trend in China, the sunset of fuel vehicles is magnificent, and the dawn of pure electric vehicles is dazzling, making the market prospects of non-extended range hybrid vehicles bleak. In addition, Toyota’s own vehicle technology iteration cycle is too long, generally reaching 4-5 years; its only pure electric model bZ4X succeeded in the first battle, but suffered a large-scale recall (although it was not for battery reasons), and finally officially announced the project a few days ago Completely discontinued.
Toyota’s decision once again made people feel that the Japanese auto giant was at a loss in the new energy era, although Toyota said it would launch solid-state batteries by 2025. But “The Story of the Wolf” made people have to lower their expectations for solid-state battery technology.
There may not be much time left for Toyota to fulfill its promise. At the just-passed Shanghai Auto Show, Ningde era has released condensed matter batteries, with a high specific energy of up to 500Wh/kg and high safety. The key is to mass-produce them this year. Therefore, it is more likely that after the condensed matter is installed in the car, the solid-state battery may completely lose the possibility of commercialization.
Today, solid-state batteries, the ultimate battery technology that has been expected by everyone, can no longer support the titles of “Terminator” for fuel vehicles and “Holy Grail” for lithium batteries. It looks more and more like a group of people on the wrong technical route, having a dream together.
But the time to wake up has come.
The author of this article: Spectrum, source: Pinwan, original title: “Solid-state batteries encounter global difficulties in production, and the “holy grail” of lithium batteries is probably just a dream”
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