Recently, large state-owned banks have issued announcements one after another, signaling that financial services to the real economy have increased. Industry insiders said that with the use of finance to irrigate the real economy, large state-owned banks have played a prominent role in serving high-quality development, and they will continue to be the main force in credit issuance. Under the condition that the total amount is expected to maintain a stable growth, the credit supply will continue to be inclined to the key areas and weak links of the real economy, and stimulate the vitality of micro-subjects.
The role of “head goose” is highlighted
According to statistics from the China Securities Journal, in the first nine months of this year, large state-owned banks added more than 9.5 trillion yuan in RMB loans. From the perspective of investment direction, large state-owned banks have significantly increased their investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, green, inclusive and other fields. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently disclosed that large banks have completed the task of adding 1.6 trillion yuan in inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises this year set by the State Council executive meeting.
Industry insiders expect that large banks will continue to play the role of “head goose” in the follow-up, increase credit issuance, and help stabilize the broader economic market. “It is expected that in the fourth quarter, large banks will still be the main force of credit issuance, which will support the growth of social financing scale.” said Dai Zhifeng, director of the Zhongtai Securities Research Institute.
Since the beginning of this year, the entire financial system has been increasing its support for the real economy. Data from the People’s Bank of China shows that in the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 18.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year; at the end of August 2022, the average interest rate of corporate loans was 4.05%, the lowest value since statistics.
New credit expected to grow steadily
In order to meet the financing needs of the real economy and help stabilize growth, industry insiders believe that new RMB loans in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to maintain steady growth.
“The improvement of new RMB loans in the fourth quarter, especially medium and long-term loans, is sustainable.” Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that on the one hand, policy-based development financial instruments and infrastructure supporting loans corresponding to special bonds will be further implemented; On the one hand, credit supply in the real estate sector is expected to recover marginally.
Credit demand in infrastructure, real estate and other fields is expected to support new credit in the fourth quarter.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that the subsequent credit demand in infrastructure, manufacturing, real estate and other fields is expected to continue to form a strong support for the year-on-year growth rate of new RMB loans and social financing scale in the fourth quarter, which will help the economic operation to remain stable. reasonable range. Luo Yamei, an analyst at Western Securities, said that considering factors such as the recent reduction in the interest rate for first home buyers and the decline in the interest rate of provident fund loans, the data on medium and long-term loans of residents in the fourth quarter is expected to improve significantly.
At the same time, the re-loans for equipment renovation and renovation launched by the People’s Bank of China in September will also provide support for new RMB loans in the fourth quarter. Zhang Lihan, a research analyst at Societe Generale, said that the refinancing and refinancing of equipment is aimed at 10 fields such as education, health, culture, tourism and sports, and is intended to “expand” credit. Judging from the policy information released by the People’s Bank of China, the scale of the re-lending may exceed market expectations.
Increase support in key areas
Under the condition that the total amount of credit is expected to maintain stable growth, industry insiders believe that credit issuance will continue to be tilted towards key areas and weak links of the real economy, stimulate the vitality of micro entities, ensure market entities, stabilize employment, and expand domestic demand.
A report released by the Bank of China Research Institute recently proposed that the banking industry should continue to increase credit support for inclusive, green, technological innovation, transportation and other fields, make good use of special credit policy tools such as re-lending and re-discount, and increase credit loans. of support.
“We should continue to give full play to the role of structural monetary policy tools in guiding the flow of funds, comprehensively use tools such as special re-lending and re-discounting, and continue to increase support for key areas and weak links such as inclusive small and micro enterprises and technological innovation.” Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said.
Wang Yifeng, chief financial analyst at Everbright Securities, believes that with the support of policies such as policy-based development financial tools and equipment renewal and re-lending, the certainty of credit expansion in infrastructure construction, manufacturing and other fields is relatively strong.
At present, the launch of policy development financial instruments is accelerating. Up to now, CDB Infrastructure Investment Fund, Agricultural Development Infrastructure Fund and Jinyin Infrastructure Fund have invested 360 billion yuan, 245.9 billion yuan and 68.4 billion yuan respectively. Wang Yifeng said that after the implementation of policy development financial instruments, the leverage effect will be fully manifested, and banking institutions will be deeply involved.