The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine turned Europe’s energy supply upside down: Today, Russian gas only plays a minor role. The situation on the energy markets has eased.
The prices for electricity, gas and petrol have fallen massively in recent months. A megawatt hour of gas currently costs around 50 francs and no longer exceeds 300 francs, as it did at the peak at the end of August. The last price was 50 francs in autumn 2021. The development for electricity is similar.
The head of the Alpiq electricity company, Antje Kanngiesser, is cautiously optimistic: “We are heading towards spring. Then the risk of a winter shortage is surely over. As a hydropower operator, however, we hope for precipitation in spring and summer.”
The German Federal Network Agency comes to similar conclusions. It monitors the electricity and gas supply in Germany. In her daily bulletin she writes: “It is unlikely that there will be another gas shortage this winter.”
Several components are involved
Various factors have led to the pleasing situation. Among other things, the winter was comparatively warm. Electricity and gas consumption was correspondingly lower. At the same time, industrial companies used significantly less gas. And the power companies have been trying to get the most out of their assets.
And then there is a psychological component: the energy companies have learned to deal with the imponderables, says Kanngiesser. “You see a relaxation, the market learns again and again.”
Last year it was extreme scenarios. But already in the second half of the year the market reacted more relaxed to comparable changes. But: «It is a market. We don’t control the factors.” That’s why you have to be very careful, you don’t know what’s coming in the next few months, says the Alpiq boss.
This is also reflected in the fact that energy prices have not or not yet reacted to the drought and the little snow in the mountains. Kanngiesser is also relaxed.
It’s only mid-February. “But we are observing the change compared to the previous year, comparable five to ten year rhythms. And we’re also looking at what has to happen in the rest of the year so that we can have good storage levels again in the second half of the year before we go into winter.”
The company is also wondering whether the reservoirs should be emptied this spring, as is usually the case. “We will certainly operate the storage facilities with a great deal of care and attention.”
Financial considerations also play a part. Holding back water is a double-edged sword. This could mean that the company could miss out on good business in the spring. But should the summer dry out again, the stored water will be all the more valuable in the coming winter.