Source: Pioneer Futures Author: Pioneer Futures
Research report text
Supply side:Origin, samplecoking coalProduction fell slightly,cokePrices were stable and moderately strong, coking coal auction transactions increased, prices of some coal types continued to rebound, and coal mine coking coal inventories declined.
In the long run, the relevant departments once again request to promote the growth of coal production. There will be some room for growth in coking coal production, but it will take a certain amount of time, and there may be a small marginal increase in the supply of production areas in the future.
In terms of importing Mongolian coal, the Ganqimaodu Port imported 789 vehicles of coal per day, an increase of 35 vehicles per day compared with the previous week. Among them, 835 vehicles of coal were imported on the 19th, setting a new high in two years.
In the medium term, the port is still expected to increase. In terms of seaborne coking coal, the price of seaborne coking coal has fallen more recently, and China’s CIF price advantage has emerged, so we continue to pay attention to the later arrivals.
Demand side:In terms of coking companies, raw coal has rebounded recently, but the increase in coke prices has not yet come to fruition, coking companies are still generally losing money, and the demand for coking coal in coking companies is still suppressed in the short term.
In terms of steel mills, the overall inventory of steel products continued to decline this week. At the same time, the profits of steel mills have been restored in the early stage.
Inventory:This week, the raw coal inventory of coal mines fell slightly, the port inventory fell slightly, the total inventory of coking coal in downstream steel mills and coking plants rose, and the overall inventory rebounded slightly, but the inventory level was at a historically low position, and the price elasticity was relatively large.
Overall point of view:On the supply side, production in domestic origins is basically normal. Recently, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has continued to increase. At the same time, the profit of seaborne coking coal imports has recovered again, and the overall supply side may increase.
In terms of demand, molten iron continues to decline, and demand for raw materials continues to fall, but downstream raw material inventories are still low, and there may still be a certain demand for winter storage in the later period. The key depends on whether the demand for steel can pick up in the later period.
In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, but it is still at a historically low position, and there is resilience below the price. On the whole, the reality of coking coal tightness is gradually easing, the early stage is positive or exhausted, and the market technology is weakening at the same time, but considering the large discount on the 01 market, and there is still a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream downstream, it is recommended to short Mainly.
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