Source: Jinxin Futures Author: Jinxin Futures
Research report text
【coking coal】
The coking coal 2305 contract closed up 0.35% at 2034 yuan / ton. The atmosphere of spot trading has picked up significantly.
On the supply side, production areas have started safety inspections one after another, and the supply will decrease to a certain extent in the short term, but the continuity of production is guaranteed, and the direct impact on output is limited, which limits the flexibility of production.
In terms of Mongolian coal, the opening of ports to traffic has returned to stability. The Mongolian side’s promotion of border price transactions and auction models has led to short-term supply and demand problems, and it is difficult to further release the import potential.
Australian coal has stopped falling, and if domestic prices rise further in the future, the import window is expected to restart. On the demand side, the production of molten iron is accelerating, and rigid demand is strong. However, the current profit expansion is slow, and there is an expectation of a stop growth.
The impact of supply disturbances was less than expected, but yesterday’s unexpected economic data injected new vitality into the market that was supposed to cool down. Under the expectation of recovery, it is expected to go to the middle and lower reaches to expand profits.
【Coke】
The coke 2305 contract closed up 0.97% at 2964.5 yuan / ton. The origin starts the first round of 100 yuan / ton increase.
On the supply side, production is stable, and there is little pressure on inventory. The profit from the previous cost has been quickly recovered in the near future. Under the threat of coking losses, it cannot cooperate with the increase in molten iron production.
In terms of steel mills, the output of molten iron has further increased, and the toughness of rigid demand is strong. Although there is still room for pressure drop in coke stocks, considering the tightening of coking coal, steel mills may choose to appropriately increase the level of coke stocks.
At present, there are not many stories about coke itself, and there are opportunities for staged expansion of profits under the logic of recovery.
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