The ECSE promotes Italy to grow more than expected, thus also reducing the public debt, but raises the alarm about the global recovery: the disparities over the vaccination campaign are threatening it.
From the OECD economic prospects, presented today in Paris, it emerges that Italy’s public debt will drop from 154.6% of GDP in 2021 to 150.4% in 2022 to 148.6% in 2023. The unemployment rate, instead, it will go from 9.6% in 2021, to 8.9% in 2022 and 8.4% in 2023, while the strong recovery of 6.3% achieved at the end of the year, with the exit from the main restrictions related to the coronavirus, will progressively decrease in 2022 and 2023, with a respective growth of 4.6% and 2.6%.
However, the greatest concerns are found worldwide: GDP will drop to 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. Same trend in the euro area, where GDP will go from 4.3% in 2022 to 2.5 % of 2023.
OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann, presenting the OECD economic estimates, issued a severe warning on the global disparities with respect to the vaccination campaign. Inequality, which in addition to having consequences on health also have an impact on the economy. “Vaccination coverage remains unequal, in developing countries but also here in Europe”, said Cormann, inviting “to continue the efforts without respite” to vaccinate “the whole world population”. “Omicron – echoed the chief economist Laurence Boone – could represent a threat to the recovery”.
“The strong recovery we have seen slows down and supply disruptions, rising inflation and the ongoing impact of the pandemic cloud the horizon,” continued Cormann, adding that “risks and uncertainties are important, as is this is demonstrated by the appearance of the Omicron variant, aggravating the disparities and threatening the recovery. Making sure that the recovery remains vigorous, on the right track – he added – will make it possible to fight against a certain number of disparities, but this requires first of all a management of the health crisis with better international coordination, improvement of health systems and intensification massive vaccination campaign in countries around the world “.
For Boone, “governments have acted swiftly and effectively at the height of the crisis to support citizens and businesses. But the work isn’t done. Insufficient coordination in vaccine deployment puts us all in danger. It is essential that lessons are learned and that investments are made in the future. It is about rethinking health systems, investing in infrastructure, helping children make up for lost months of school and implementing ambitious strategies for integrating everyone into the world of work. Governments need to rethink how they use public resources. They must correct the mistakes of the past to prepare for the future: spend better to amplify potential growth and accelerate the transition to clean energy ».