The overall pressure on the supply side will not decrease in the medium term, and the rubber will take a neutral view after a short-term correction_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Southwest Futures Author: Southwest Futures

Research report text

The market of natural rubber has maintained a weekly level of strong shocks since November 1, when the surge bottomed out and rebounded. The 01 contract broke through 13,000 points at the highest point, and the current main contract 05 contract broke through 13,200 points at the highest point. Slightly slower, combined with the spot price, the non-standard basis spread followed the market trend and expanded, reaching the previous high point, which also formed a certain suppression on the market. In terms of fundamentals, the global natural rubber supply will maintain a moderate growth trend in the medium term, driven by periodic weather disturbances or limited, and imports will increase month-on-month in November, and it is expected to show a growth trend in the medium term; in terms of demand, the terminal demand for tires and other natural rubber products continues to be biased. Weak situation. Under the first round of impact after the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy and the continued sluggish real estate sales, the overall domestic sales performance is not good. In terms of export sales, the latest data shows that tire exports in November weakened year-on-year. Positive growth is still maintained, but as the periphery continues to be under high interest rates, the economic recession is expected to continue, and external demand may weaken. Exports are expected to be under pressure next year. However, the recent meeting at the macro level has set the tone for next year’s economic recovery. Follow-up support The introduction of policies is expected to continue, and weak recovery may be a high probability event.

On the whole, although the short-term is weak, but after the medium- and long-term bottom is consolidated, the center of the band will move up or the whole year of next year will be vaguely judged. There may be strong support near the low position before the 05 contract. The risk point is that the overseas financial economy has an unexpected risk. The report of this issue suggests that the previous high-level short orders should be placed around 12,500 points in batches, and a proper stop profit around 12,200 points is recommended.

[The import of raw materials has increased month-on-month, and the social and port warehouses continue to accumulate]

Customs statistics show that in November, China’s naturalrubberThe import volume was 616,100 tons, an increase of 15.68% month-on-month and 14.45% year-on-year. From January to November 2022, China imported a total of 5.3964 million tons of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber), an increase of 11.04% over the same period last year. According to the research data of Zhuo Chuang Information, as of the week of December 16, the inventory of 17 samples of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 118,900 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons or 3.84% over the previous period. The inventory of 16 samples of natural rubber general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 420,500 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons or 1.18% over the previous period.

[The start of work is lower, and the inventory of finished products is slightly reduced]

As of (December 16-December 22), the operating rate of Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises in the week was 58.72%, -8.40% month-on-month, and -6.63% year-on-year; the operating rate of Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises was 55.36%, month-on-month – 7.62%, -8.70% year-on-year. The inventory turnover days of semi-steel tires were 48.95 days, -0.17 days from the previous cycle; the average inventory turnover days of all-steel tire sample companies were 48.69 days, +0.06 days from the previous cycle.

On the whole, the whole country entered the epidemic period in late December, and logistics and production were affected to varying degrees. It has not yet come, and this state is expected to continue until the Spring Festival.

[Commercial vehicles perform poorly, heavy trucks mainly operate at a low level]

According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, my country’s automobile production and sales reached 2.386 million and 2.328 million, respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% and 7.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%. Compared with last year and the year before, the production and sales of automobiles are slightly weaker, and there is no end-of-year hike as in previous years. In November, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 45,000 units, down 7% month-on-month and 12% year-on-year. The cumulative total from January to November fell 54% year-on-year.

In terms of supporting markets, there has been no significant improvement since November, and it is expected that December will remain weak due to the impact of the first round of the epidemic. Looking forward to next year, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, and that the recovery and expansion of consumption should be given priority. The policy of tax reduction and exemption for passenger car purchases is expected to continue in 2023 according to the tone of the previous meeting, so pay attention to the new The strength of the policy is to pay attention to the bottoming signal of commercial vehicle and heavy truck sales in the medium and long term.

[Tire exports fell month-on-month, pay attention to the performance of peripheral demand under high interest rates]

The data shows that in terms of the number of tires, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in November was 40.72 million, a decrease of 470,000 from the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%.

Both year-on-year declines, the current epidemic prevention and control policies continue to be adjusted, and domestic tire companies have gone abroad to grab orders in preparation for later exports. Many companies believe that there will be positive changes in the market outlook, but cautiously, the high tire exports have been maintained for two years. The market is not optimistic about the overall domestic export market next year, and whether there will be a sharp drop in demand or systemic risks in the periphery under high interest rates next year deserves our attention.

In summary, we believe that after the short-term correction of natural rubber, we will take a neutral view, and pay attention to the overall domestic economic recovery and overseas macro risks in the medium and long term. In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to take profit and reduce holdings of high empty orders in the early stage.

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