Financial Associated Press, February 25th (Reporter Wang Pingan and Liu Jian)After the Spring Festival, due to the off-season of habitual consumption after the festival, the price of pigs fluctuated and went down. But recently, with the opening of the national purchase and storage operation, the price of pigs has also officially started a continuous increase mode, and many places have returned to the 8 yuan range, pointing to the “9 yuan” mark.
A reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned from various interviews that the recent continuous rise in pig prices is not only affected by the national purchase and storage policy on market sentiment, but also stimulated by the second fattening entry. Before mid-March, the price of pigs may fluctuate strongly.
According to monitoring data from Yongyi Consulting, as of February 24, the average price of live pigs across the country was 15.82 yuan/kg, and coastal areas such as Fujian, Guangdong, and Zhejiang have officially entered the range of 8 yuan.
(Source: Yongyi Consulting) Wang Hailian, a live pig analyst at the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Steel Union, told the reporter, “The main reason for the current round of pig price rise is that the secondary fattening in the north has gradually entered the market, and at the same time the purchase and storage actions have also begun. In many factors Under the influence, the price of live pigs has risen in varying degrees, exceeding 8 yuan per catty in some areas.”
Fan Dino, a researcher of Golden Pig Data, holds the same view. The continuous rise in pig prices in recent days is not only affected by the stimulation of the second fattening entry and the purchase and storage actions, but also the reasons for the anti-price reluctance of the breeding end and the decrease in group sales. .
It is worth mentioning that on February 22, Huachu.com issued the “Notice on Matters Concerning Bidding Transactions for the First Batch of Central Reserve Frozen Pork Purchases and Storage in 2023.” At 13:00 on the afternoon of February 24, the purchase and storage transaction officially started, and the purchase and storage auction transaction was 20,000 tons.
In terms of secondary fattening, some industry analysts said that the current proportion of farmers entering the farm for secondary fattening is about 15%-20%. Many front-line breeding practitioners told reporters that they have started the second fattening. Mr. Huang, who was engaged in the second fattening at the end of last year, said, “I had a certain loss at the end of the second fattening last year, but I have entered the market recently.”
It should be noted that if the secondary fattening tends to be frequent, it may cause the risk of stampede on pig prices in the future. “Currently, the secondary fattening tends to be frequent, and the slaughtering rhythm of large-scale farms is frequently adjusted. In the following months, there is no lack of possibility of concentrated slaughtering causing price stampedes.” Zhang Bin, a pig analyst at Shanghai Steel Federation, told reporters.
Looking ahead, can pig prices continue to rise under the support of multiple factors? “At present, the second fattening is actively entering the market, and there are replenishment stalls in Northeast China, North China, Central China, South China, and Southwest China. The transaction of piglets is active, coupled with the policy guidance of purchasing and storage, the demand of downstream terminals is gradually recovering, and the expectation is enhanced. The supply of breeding end is reduced, especially for large retail investors. The remaining source of weight pigs is limited, and there is a reluctance to sell them. The increase in short-term benefits will support the price. It is initially expected that the price may fluctuate slightly before mid-March.” Zhang Bin said.
In the short term, the farming side has been losing money for many months. When will it get out of the loss period? “From the perspective of the basic data of reproductive sows, in fact, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively high, and the key issue is whether consumption can be brought up.” Fan Dino said.
Jiang Hong, Secretary of the Board of Shennong Group (605296.SH), told reporters, “The price of pigs in the second quarter should be better than that in the first quarter, but for us pig companies, while paying attention to the trend of pig prices, what we should do is how to minimize increase efficiency.”
In the long run, Beijing Capital Futures believes that the main contradiction in the fundamentals in 2023 will not be on the supply side, and the recovery of catering consumption and the scale rhythm of the second fattening will become the marginal drivers of price fluctuations during the year. It is estimated that the average price for the whole year of 2023 will be 19 yuan/kg. Among them, the second fattening behavior may cause large fluctuations in short-term prices in April, July, September, and December.
In Zhang Bin’s view, it is initially expected that the average annual slaughter price will remain above the cost line (17 yuan/kg) or at 17.6-18.6 yuan/kg. Judging from the de-capacity situation, the commercial pig slaughter may decrease in April and July, which may support higher prices at that time. The demand has gradually recovered, and the increase in demand in September may have been obvious, and the possibility of a high price may increase significantly. December is the traditional peak season, and prices may also be supported.
(Editor Liu Yan)