In April, the property market transactions in key cities fell after surging in March, and the top 100 real estate companies soldachievementAlso fell month-on-month, but the market is still better than the same period last year.
Industry insiders believe that the decline in the transaction volume of the property market in April was mainly due to the fact that the confidence of the industry has not been fully restored, and the demand accumulated in the early stage has been temporarily weakened. In the second quarter, the national real estate market is expected to stabilize, but the market differentiation among cities will continue, and the market activity in hot cities is expected to maintain, and most cities will still face greater adjustment pressure.
Property market transactions in key cities soared and fell
In April, property market transactions in key cities fell after surging in March.
According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in April, the transaction area of new houses in key 100 cities fell by about 20% month-on-month, and still increased by more than 40% year-on-year despite the low base in the same period last year. From January to April, the average monthly sales area of commercial housing in key 100 cities increased by more than 20% year-on-year, but the absolute scale was still at a low level since 2015.
Data from Crane Research Center also showed that the quality of the property market in April was not good, and transactions in 30 key cities fell month-on-month.
In terms of cities, first-tier cities have relatively strong transaction resilience. After a concentrated increase in volume in March, they fell slightly by 11% in April, and still increased by 21% year-on-year. Among them, Beijing and Shenzhen continued to increase year-on-year, and Shenzhen mainly benefited from the increase in supply; Beijing faced a significant shortage of supply, and the enthusiasm for rigid demand continued. The transactions in Shanghai and Guangzhou dropped slightly month-on-month, and the popularity dropped slightly, but they still maintained a year-on-year growth trend.
The second- and third-tier cities are facing a decline in popularity. On the one hand, the overall transaction correction rate is greater than that of the first-tier cities, with a month-on-month drop of 30%.
Crane Research Center pointed out that at present, there are three types of cities that have experienced a more significant decline. One is Wuhan, Tianjin, Chongqing and other popular second-tier cities that still have population advantages. As the supply of low-price houses has been completely depleted, the overall demand has also entered a period of weakening. The second is Changchun, Nanning, Dalian, Kunming and other non-hot second-tier cities. The overall urban fundamentals are not good, and the problem of high inventory is difficult to solve. After the transaction returns to rationality, it is expected that the market will continue to build a bottom. The third is Xuzhou, Foshan, Dongguan and other third- and fourth-tier cities. With the enthusiasm for home buying and short-term investment speculation weakening, the market has returned to rationality.
The Kerr Research Center believes that both the supply and demand of the property market will usher in an “inflection point” in April, and the absolute volume will return to the level when the current round of the market started in February. The reason is that the confidence of the industry has not been fully restored, and the demand accumulated in the early stage is gradually weakened.
The year-on-year growth rate of real estate companies’ performance has further improved
In April, the market activity in some key cities declined, resulting in a month-on-month decline in the performance of real estate companies, but year-on-year, they still maintained growth, and the growth rate further increased.
According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in April, the monthly sales of the top 100 real estate companies in April fell by 17.4% month-on-month and increased by 29.9% year-on-year. From January to April, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 2,393.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and continued to maintain growth.
The data from Crane Research Center also shows that in April, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales volume of 566.54 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 14.4%; a year-on-year increase of 31.6%, maintaining growth year-on-year and a further increase from the previous month . In terms of cumulative performance, from January to April, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales volume of 2.04992 billion yuan, and the cumulative performance has increased to 9.7% year-on-year since the first quarter became positive.
Although the performance of the top 100 real estate companies fell month-on-month in April, nearly 30% of the top 100 real estate companies showed a month-on-month growth in performance, includingChina Merchants Shekou、Riverside Group、China Railway Constructionand so on; at the same time, nearly 60% of the top 100 real estate companies have seen a year-on-year increase in their monthly performance. Crane Research Center pointed out that overall, central state-owned enterprises and some high-quality private enterprises have shown strong anti-cyclical resilience by virtue of their layout in hot cities and active promotion and removal.
The national market is expected to stabilize in the second quarter
Although the market turnover turned down month-on-month, it was still better than the same period last year.
The Middle Finger Research Institute believes that after the concentrated release of the backlog of demand in the early stage, the current market activity in key cities has declined, and the market in some cities has cooled significantly. Under the weak income and employment expectations of residents, the impetus for further market recovery is insufficient. The short-term real estate policy will remain loose. It is very important to stabilize the confidence and expectations of homebuyers.
In April, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee released a positive signal. Zhongzhi Research Institute believes that on the one hand, the economic operation is showing a positive trend, and the recovery and expansion of demand are still the key to the continued improvement of the economy, and real estate is also an important starting point for expanding demand; on the other hand, the meeting set the tone for the real estate market, and short-term real estate The policy will remain loose, which will help stabilize the confidence and expectations of homebuyers.
The China Finger Research Institute predicts that with the further optimization and adjustment of local policies and the steady recovery of the macro economy, the national real estate market is expected to stabilize in the second quarter, but the market differentiation between cities will continue, and the market activity in hot cities is expected to remain active. Adjust the pressure.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Crane Research Center believes that the weakening of rigid demand and the improvement of succession are high-probability events. If real estate companies can release discounts at the May 1st marketing node, or some favorable policies are introduced at the local government level, the overall transaction is still possible. Steady and slight increase. Different cities are expected to continue to diverge: For Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Hefei, which are hot spots and hot spots, they may face supply constraints, and the overall transaction will continue to run smoothly; for Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and other cities that have been sluggish in the early stage, Still facing a phased adjustment period, it is difficult to see a significant improvement in the transaction in the short term, and the enthusiasm for the third and fourth tiers in northern Jiangsu and Sichuan and Chongqing, driven by home purchases, will continue to decline.
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(Source of article: Brokerage China)
Article source: Brokerage China
Original title: The property market soared and fell back! In April, the performance of the top 100 real estate companies fell month-on-month. How will they go in the second quarter?
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