The winds of war blowing in the Middle East have not yet produced particularly serious effects on our trade. This is supported by the CGIA of Mestre, underlining that between the first two months of 2023 and the same period of this year, the number of merchant ships arriving in Italian ports decreased by 169 units, equal to -3.6% of the total Arrivals. But imports especially from Lombardy and Veneto are at risk in the near future, even if, at least until now, merchant ships coming from South East Asia have almost all landed in the Mediterranean and subsequently in Italian ports.
It takes longer to navigate
Travel times have become longer, causing a sharp increase in the cost of freight. For a 40-foot container that traveled the China-East Asia route to the Mediterranean in mid-January, the price reached a peak of $6,673. Nothing to do, however, with the rates that were charged in the summer of 2021, when they were around 12,000 dollars. It should also be noted that compared to a couple of months ago, costs are falling. In fact, last March 1st, the price dropped to 4,972 dollars per container, against the 3,300 dollars recorded by the world freight index calculated by Freightos Baltic Index.
There is a crisis in Genoa
Among the main port systems present in Italy, the most important contraction in absolute terms concerned Genoa which saw dockings decrease by 61 units (-10.7%). Followed by Livorno with -43 (-9.8%) and Venice with -34 (-6.4%). In contrast, however, the results achieved by the port of Augusta which recorded an increase in landings of 30 units (+12.2%), by Naples with +35 units (+18.2%) and by Sarroch-Cagliari with + 39 units (+18.7%).
Exports and imports: the figures
In reference to the latest available statistical data, Italian foreign trade (import + export) which “travels” by ship with the countries directly or indirectly influenced by the Red Sea crisis amounts to 161.7 billion euros. This amount affects Italy’s entire foreign trade by 12.6%. Of these 161.7 billion, 110 (equal to 68%) concern imports and “only” 51.7 billion euros (equal to 32%) concern exports. In light of these figures, if the situation in the Middle Eastern area were to worsen further, the negative impact could be felt more on the imports of goods. At a regional level, Lombardy and Veneto are the areas that could be the most at risk: if the former has 30.4 billion in imports in the countries concerned, the latter has almost 17. Following is Emilia Romagna with 9.3 billion and the Lazio with 7.4 billion. On the export front, however, the most in “danger” once again remains Lombardy which records 12.5 billion in sales in these areas. Emilia Romagna follows with 8.7 and Veneto with 5.7 billion euros.
The costs of crude oil and gas: here’s what happens
It should also be underlined that the value of imports influenced by the Red Sea crisis is decreasing compared to 2022 (from 110 billion euros to 95 billion estimated for 2023), due to the fall in import prices, in particular energy products. If, however, tensions in that region continue, a new surge in prices of both crude oil and natural gas cannot be ruled out.
Trade, data by category
From the analysis of the product categories it emerges that of the 161.7 billion euros to which foreign trade with the countries affected by the Red Sea crisis amounts, machines and electrical/mechanical appliances are the productions that could be most penalized by the winds of war that they are blowing in that area. The latest available data tell us, in fact, that this product category is worth a total of 36.5 billion euros per year (20.1 of imports to which 16.4 billion of exports are added). This is followed by petroleum products and natural gas with 24.9 billion in imports, chemical/rubber/plastic products with 18.9 billion (12.4 in imports and 6.4 in exports) and metals with 18.6 billion euros (15.4 imports and 3.2 exports).