Focus on:1. Ukraine supplies about 70% of the world‘s neon gas. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, the neon gas needed for chip production and the international supply of key raw materials may be disrupted. 2. A number of domestic chip design companies told Sina Technology that they have not felt the production pressure brought about by the war at present. Under the circumstance that the reserves are sufficient, the price increase of raw materials will take time to transmit and the response of the industry chain to be accepted by the outside world. perception. 3.In fact, the domestic purification technology for these rare gases has achieved breakthroughs, and the production process is relatively mature, and it is no longer a technology that can “stuck China’s neck”.
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Text | Sina Technology Zhou Wenmeng
Editor | Han Dapeng
The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, in addition to causing casualties and economic losses, is causing new impacts and impacts on the safe production and stable supply of the global chip industry.
In the field of chip raw materials, Ukraine provides more than 70% of the special gases required for semiconductor production such as tritium and neon to the world. In addition, as the world‘s largest producer of palladium, Russia also controls the production of palladium materials, which account for about 40% of global production, and these are precisely the key raw materials for producing chips.
With the official outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the global supply of upstream raw materials for chips is once again facing new risks and uncertainties. For the domestic chip industry, is this a danger or an opportunity?
The price of “electronic special gas” has nearly quadrupled
In the proportion of wafer manufacturing materials, the “electronic special gas” represented by neon gas and tritium gas is the second consumable after silicon wafers. Taking the application of neon gas in a lithography machine as an example, during ionization, the rare mixed gas containing neon will emit a laser with a specific wavelength and energy, and these lasers are exactly what allows the lithography machine to remove the photoresist on the surface of the chip. coating, which in turn draws the main beam of a specific circuit diagram on the surface of the silicon wafer.
According to reports, among the ArF lasers mainly used in DUV lithography machines, neon accounts for more than 96% of the gas mixture. It can be said that if there is no such “electronic special gas”, the lithography machine, which currently makes the entire semiconductor manufacturing industry priceless, will also lose its unique charm. Moreover, this is only one of the applications of “electronic special gas”. There are different “electronic special gas” figures in many links involving silicon wafer manufacturing, oxidation, lithography, etching and so on.
Similarly, in the chip manufacturing industry, the indispensability of electronic special gas often makes people in the industry compare materials such as neon gas to the “food” of semiconductor materials. In the rare gas supply chain, Russia and Ukraine both occupy an important position. Among them, Russia is known for its abundant reserves of rare gas resources, while Ukraine has inherited the industrial technologies of iron and steel metallurgy and air separation of the former Soviet Union, and has a solid gas refining equipment foundation, and its gas refining level ranks among the top in the world.
According to a previous Wanlian Securities research report, Ukraine supplies about 70% of the world‘s neon gas, and supplies about 40% of the world‘s krypton gas and 30% of the xenon gas. In addition, Russia also controls the supply of nearly 40% of the global production of palladium materials.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, some market analysts pointed out that with the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international supply of neon gas and key raw materials such as palladium required for chip production may be disrupted, and even lead to further aggravation of the global chip shortage. Another market research company, TrendForce, pointed out that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may disrupt the supply of neon gas, push up the price of chip raw materials, and then increase the cost of chip manufacturing.
In fact, in the past year, due to the escalating bilateral friction between Russia and Ukraine, the global price of rare gases has been rising since the second half of 2021. Among them, neon gas has risen from about 400 yuan per cubic meter to about 1,650 yuan at present. The average price of krypton gas has risen from about 10,000 yuan in the original market to about 30,000 yuan.
As early as during the Crimea incident in 2014, due to the tension between Russia and Ukraine, the price of neon gas once increased by nearly 10 times. An industry insider told Sina Technology, “Now there is another conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although the two sides will not cut off the supply because of this, but the impact of gas supply will lead to a reduction in production, which will inevitably lead to price increases, which will ultimately lead to a direct increase in chip production costs. “
It will take time for the price increase to reach consumers
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, according to Joe Pasetti, vice president of global public policy at the International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Association, assessing key chip manufacturing supply exposures, due to the war, there will be potential supply disruptions for raw materials such as palladium, helium, neon and scandium in the future.
In addition, the White House National Security Council has also begun reaching out to chip industry figures in recent days about the supply of Russian and Ukrainian chipmaking materials and urging them to find other sources to ensure supply chain diversification to prevent Russian restrictions on U.S. exports. Threats of retaliation to prevent access to critical raw materials.
As the dispute heats up again, the trend of rising raw material prices in the global chip industry is already visible to the naked eye. However, judging from the current situation, it still takes a period of time to ferment from the increase in the price of special gases, the raw material, to the overall price increase of the entire chip industry.
Recently, chip companies such as Samsung, Intel, GF, UMC, Micron, and SK Hynix have publicly stated in response to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine dispute, “The situation in Russia and Ukraine has no direct impact on the company, and the company can operate in Russia. Looking for sources of goods outside of Ukraine, the supply of materials is still stable at this stage.”
Behind this confidence, in fact, it is mainly due to the fact that companies in the conductor industry have captured the changes in the situation in advance before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and actively reserve a large number of special gas raw materials.
According to announcements issued by companies such as SK Hynix and Micron before the Russian-Ukrainian war, the company has reserved sufficient chip raw materials and prepared a diversified supply chain, and is confident in supply. Ren Lu, a senior analyst in China’s special gas market, also pointed out recently: “At present, there is no problem with the normal use of rare gas inventories in global semiconductor companies for 6 months.”
“The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war has aroused people’s concerns about chip raw materials, but we have not felt the relevant pressure at present,” said insiders of several chip design companies such as Horizon Technology to Sina Technology. In their view, although neon, krypton, and xenon are necessary for the production of the semiconductor industry, their absolute usage is not high. Under the circumstance that the reserves are sufficient, the impact caused by the increase in the price of special gas raw materials for chips will take a certain period of time. Only the transmission and the collective response of the industrial chain can be truly felt by the outside world.
Is there an opportunity for Chinese companies?
While the Russia-Ukraine dispute has affected the global supply of rare gases such as neon and tritium, will the domestic semiconductor industry also be affected? Similar problems also surfaced. However, from the current situation, this probability is not high.
In fact, at the technical realization level, gases such as neon and xenon are actually by-products of the steel industry, which are separated and produced by air separation equipment. At present, China’s steel production has reached 56% of the world. The domestic purification technology for these rare gases has achieved breakthroughs, and the production process is relatively mature. It is no longer a technology that can “stuck China’s neck”.
“For domestic companies engaged in the production and supply of special gases, this may be an opportunity that can be seized.” An industry insider told Sina Technology that ASML, a global chip manufacturing lithography equipment provider, is currently considering seeking diversification. supplier of specialty gases. Previously, Huat Gas has obtained the special gas certification of ASML, and companies such as Cammet Gas are in the certification of ASML. In the future, more and more Chinese special gas companies will also become important candidates for the diversified supply chain of global chip manufacturing companies.