Today’s news:
1. The People’s Bank of China has clarified the operational thinking of monetary policy in the second half of the year: Do not engage in “flooding flooding” and focus on the real economy
2. Make a big profit of 470,000 yuan in the first one? The A-share epic “big meat sign” comes with an issue price of 292.92 yuan! Where is the “divine lottery”?
3. The latest action of “Public Offering One Brother” is exposed! Reduced holdings of mustard grass and soy sauce leaders are focusing on this sector!
4. Guotai Junan: Maintain Kweichow Moutai Overweight rating and lower target price to 2138 yuan
In May and July, Caixin China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3, the lowest since May 2020
6. School district housing faces a fatal blow?Shenzhen takes a big shot to promote enrollment in university districts and establish reference prices for rental housing
7. These three stocks are “good-hearted”! 12 securities companies released their August gold stock portfolios and suggested sticking to the main line of the economy
8. The list of stocks lifted this week is released. Nearly 800 million shares of this brokerage stock are facing lifting of the ban (with shares)
As far as the market outlook is concerned, CICC believes that at the current point, it still maintains the judgment of “light index, heavy structure, and partial growth”. The overall valuation of the index is not high, and the downside space may be limited, but in the context of weaker growth , It may be difficult to have an overall performance. Follow-up recommendations will continue to focus on structural opportunities and dilute the focus on the broad-based blue chip index. The high valuation of the growth style may increase volatility, but the volatile market style may continue to be biased towards growth. In the first half of last week, the A-share market increased market volatility and increased trading volume. However, as investors gradually digested policy intentions and stabilized the market by regulatory statements, the market stabilized. The growth sector once again outperformed sharply in the second half of the week, but the consumer sector Still sluggish.
In addition, Kaiyuan Securities stated that the market has gradually stabilized after substantial volatility, but the volatility has not converged. Investors need not rush to “buy the bottom”. Structural adjustment is still the core contradiction. The Politburo meeting on July 30 triggered heated discussions in the market. For cyclical stocks, even with short-term fluctuations, the short-term supply weakens while the demand effect is strengthening, and the long-term stability of the carbon neutral policy further establishes the upward shift of the profit center. With the increase in short-term “volume” and the central rise of long-term profit margins, cyclical stocks have become a better investment tool than commodities.
CITIC Securities pointed out that it is expected that in August, the extreme differentiation of the A-share market will come to an end, and growth and value will return to equilibrium. In terms of configuration, it is recommended that both growth manufacturing and value consumption be grasped.
First of all, the peak of negative resonance of internal and external emotions has passed, investors’ early expectations of industry policies were too pessimistic, and the market overreacted; domestic industry policies are more long-term, normative rather than disruptive. After policy perceptions are corrected, investors Emotions will slowly heal.
Secondly, the herd effect of market funds has moved to the extreme in the near future. Both incremental capital building and stock capital adjustments are focused on growth and manufacturing. Under extreme differentiation, the liquidity siphon effect of strong sectors is obvious, and August is constrained by the overall tight balance of market liquidity. As it grows stronger, the market structure will return to equilibrium from extreme differentiation.
Finally, the macro-expected combination of “weak fundamentals + strong liquidity” remains unchanged in August. The short-term domestic economic disturbances will not change the medium-term trend of improvement. Under the suppression of the Delta variant strain, the European and American economies will recover, herd immunity, and monetary easing will withdraw. The timing will shift back, and inter-bank liquidity will still be loose under the constraints of credit risk.
In terms of operating strategy, Minsheng Securities suggested that in August style, the technology sector should take profit at rallies. If there is a correction, it is a good buying opportunity. The consumer sector has made a gradual allocation of valuation corrections and stocks that may have an inflection point near the interim report. Under the weakening economy, the cyclical sector allocation will continue to be weakened.
Configuration suggestions: First, the technology sector: lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and semiconductors will still be the main lines, communications can be moderately participated, and the overall top game will be the mainstay, which will be manifested as a rapid rotation within the sector.
Second, the consumer sector: Valuation has tended to be underestimated. It is recommended to gradually adjust positions based on the improvement of fundamentals. The restoration of market sentiment requires a longer process. We recommend weak cycle + low PEG, compound condiments and dairy products. The popular liquor sector is recommended to wait for further proof from the consumer side, or to fall out of room for valuation.
Third, the pharmaceutical sector: The biggest problem of the “core track” is still valuation. High-quality companies are also key national support directions, including medical services, CXO, vaccines, etc., and there may be better allocation opportunities from the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter .
Fourth, the cyclical sector: the large financial and real estate sectors are subject to the conversion of new and old economic kinetic energy under real estate and technology, and valuation will continue to be suppressed. The slowdown in the current round of economic recovery is also not conducive to resource products such as coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals. Continuity of performance, focusing on new energy-related small metals with growth logic.
Essence Securities mentioned that affected by factors such as increasing downward pressure on the economy and short-term tight market incremental funds, the market may continue to be in the adjustment stage in the short term, and some popular tracks will also face greater adjustment pressure. In the medium and long term, the logic of the A-share long bull and the mid-term growth mainline we previously proposed is still valid, and the structural bull market in growth stocks is expected to continue after the end of the adjustment period. Investors are advised to wait for the market to stabilize and increase positions on high-prosperity and long-term key directions such as photovoltaics, military industry, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, automobiles, 5G, and CXO.
West China Securities said that “technological growth” is still the key direction of allocation. In the context of increasing external environmental risks and rising pressures for stable growth of the domestic economy, macroeconomic policy adjustments or margins have strengthened in the second half of the year, making it difficult to significantly tighten macro liquidity. The recent increase in the volatility of A-shares is more due to emotional disturbances, and market adjustment is also a process of risk release, and there is no systemic risk for the time being. In terms of style, the “hard technology” related industry chain has policy support and is also the direction for public funds to adjust positions and increase allocations. However, the trading structure of the popular track is crowded, and the early-stage growth of related sectors is too fast, and the market outlook may fluctuate or intensify. Investors are advised to reduce it reasonably expected profits. In terms of industry configuration, “technological growth” is still the key direction, such as: “new energy and new energy vehicle industry chain (such as: non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, chemicals, etc.), semiconductors, military industry”, etc.; on the theme, focus on “carbon neutrality” (Green Industry)” connotation expansion.
(Source: Oriental Wealth Research Center)
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