The text of the research report
logic:
Recently, the construction of V has gradually improved. There are not many companies scheduled for maintenance in September, and the maintenance loss has decreased month-on-month. It is estimated that the maintenance loss next week will be 12.8 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons.
The start of calcium carbide construction dropped to 75%, the profit of calcium carbide was still at a loss of around -140, the weekly V construction started to increase, and the social pool continued to accumulate.
Driven by building materials, the price of V has risen by 65-70, the profit side of V has been repaired, the profit of calcium carbide has been lost to -140, the profit of calcium carbide mining outside East China is -803, the profit of chlor-alkali integration has been restored to 57, and the profit of weekly export to India Better, around 490.
In September, the new plant of 200,000 tons in Qingdao Gulf will be put into operation, the supply of V will return, and the follow-up pressure on the supply side will be great. In the near future, Yunnan may implement a dual-control power rationing policy for energy consumption, reducing the pressure on the supply side.
Zhengzhou and other domestic provinces and cities have introduced a number of policies to bail out real estate, and the weather has turned cooler and entered the peak season, which has boosted market sentiment. Pay attention to the demand of “Golden Nine Silver Ten”. The risk of global economic downturn has increased, overseas demand has declined, and recession is the main line.
PVCDiurnal (September 14) changes:
drive:
up:The power cut in Yunnan and the peak consumption season of gold, silver and silver are expected to ease the current high inventory situation.
down:The high inventory situation is difficult to alleviate.
The overall start-up load of PVC production enterprises in the week was 73.48%, a month-on-month increase of 1.01%, and the domestic PVC social inventory was 356,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.17%.
The weekly upstream inventory was slightly destocked, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14 days, and the absolute volume decreased by 3.41% month-on-month, which was a historical high year-on-year.
As of September 9, the number of days in the warehouse inventory of Chinese PVC manufacturers was 4.72 days, a decrease of 0.19 days from the previous month. The supply of goods to domestic PVC manufacturers, warehousing and export delivery increased, and the inventory decreased slightly.
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