Despite the worsening inflation and financing conditions with an international scenario dominated by the war in Ukraine and a consequent great uncertainty, in the summer of 2022 tourism started to turn again. And Italy is immediately ready to reap the benefits of the first season of almost normalcy after two years of restrictions linked to the pandemic emergency. The numbers of reservations, airport arrivals and room occupancy are immediately reflected in the electronic invoicing data which, in the first half of the year, for accommodation and catering services, recorded an increase in VAT by 66% compared to the same period 2021. These data are not yet definitive but nevertheless already give the signal of a change in speed.
The prospects of the Italian economy and therefore of public finances also hang on to the new-found health of tourism. Because the rush of spending and turnover that is recorded in Italy, also thanks to the chaos of the airports that has held back many from the idea of a holiday abroad and the strong dollar that has favored arrivals from the United States, can prove decisive in thinning out the “clouds” from the economic trend of the third quarter, the heart of summer, pushing them towards the fourth. It would not be a small result, because it would help a lot to consolidate that + 3.4% growth acquired in June, three decimal places higher than the annual target set by the government in April, keeping the deficit on track and pushing the debt towards quota. 145% of GDP (also thanks to inflation).
The hope is not strange because tourism (Istat data) is worth around 6.4% of GDP in its characteristic products, and rises above 9% considering the related industries (for example shopping for travelers). And its specific weight is obviously greater in the summer quarter.
Among the public budgets aided by tourism there are also municipal ones. In the first seven months of 2022, the mayors collected 158.6 million from the tourist tax, with a jump of 194% compared to the same period of the previous year. Of course, a start to 2021 still dominated by pandemic risk weighs in comparison (in the first six months the comparison gives + 330%), but also in July the increase was 37.6% compared to the same month last year.
Two factors that characterize 2022 tourism are driving attendance. The first is the tendency of Italians to choose their country as a holiday destination: of the 34.5 million who have gone or will go on holidays, according to a recent Confcommercio forecast, almost 90% will not cross the border. The second driving factor is the return of international tourism: in July (ENIT and Assoturismo data), air bookings to Italy recorded + 222% compared to the same month in 2021, while in August the increase was 202% . The United States are driving foreign sources: according to a study by Confcommercio-Tra Consulting, 2.2 million North Americans are expected to arrive between July and September with a total estimated expenditure of over 2.1 billion euros (higher than 20 % compared to 2019).