Source: Huachuang Futures Author: Huachuang Futures
Research report text
【soybean meal】
logic:Last Friday, the main soybean meal futures contract M2305 closed at 3,936 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton or 1.78% from the settlement price of the previous trading day.
According to data from Steel Union, the aggregate average price of soybean meal from oil mills on that day was 4,748 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
On the supply side, domesticsoybeanAfter arriving in Hong Kong one after another, most oil factories resumed operation. On December 30, the weekly crushing volume of major oil factories in China was 1.998 million tons, and the weekly output of soybean meal was 1.578 million tons. The supply side is loose.
According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina, as of December 29, Argentina’s soybean crop status was rated as poor at 28% (25% last week, 8% last year), and 62% general (last week 63%, compared to 35% last year).
Trend view:It is recommended to sell high and buy low.
【palmOil】
logic:Last Friday, the closing price of P2305, the main palm oil futures contract, was 8338 yuan/ton, an increase of 230 yuan/ton, or 2.84%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day.
In terms of spot goods, according to data from Steel Union, the average daily price of domestic 24-degree palm oil last Friday rose by 105 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The Indonesian minister stated that Indonesia will start to use B35 biodiesel mandatory on February 1, 2023. In addition, Indonesia will implement a new palm oil DMO policy from January 2023, and the ratio will be adjusted to 1:6 (previously 1:8) , Overlaying the export data of major producing countries performed well, boosting palm oil prices in the short term.
Domestically, the National Health and Medical Commission issued the “Overall Plan for the Implementation of “Class B and B Management” for New Coronavirus Infection”. The new crown was renamed and downgraded, and the expected demand in the catering industry increased. Now, and it is not the peak season for palm oil consumption, it is difficult for the demand side to increase significantly, and the upper space may be limited. It is expected that the palm oil futures price will be relatively strong in the short term.
Trend view:It is recommended to wait and see mainly or the callback of wet storage is short and long.
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