Source: Founder Mid-term Futures Author: Founder Mid-term Futures
Research report text
【Market review】
On the 16th, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the U.S. soybean market will be closed. The M2305 contract closed at 3899 yuan/ton in the afternoon, down 17 yuan/ton, or 0.43%.
On the spot side,soybean mealSpot prices were steady. Nantong 4600 yuan / ton remained stable, Tianjin 4620 yuan / ton remained stable, Rizhao 4630 yuan / ton remained stable, Fangcheng 4700 yuan / ton remained stable, and Zhanjiang 4660 yuan / ton remained stable. 05 contract basis converged to 701 yuan / ton.
【Important information】
The USDA’s January report is bullish on international soybean prices, mainly due to the reduction of US soybeans and new Argentine cropssoybeanYield; 【Lido】
Agricultural consulting agency AgRural said on Monday that as of last Thursday, Brazil’s soybean harvested area in 2022/2023 had reached 0.04% of the country’s planted area, compared with 0.2% in the same period last year;[Neutral]
Consulting firm Safras & Mercado said on Friday that Brazil’s 2022/23 soybean production is expected to be 153.37 million tons, down 0.75% from its previous forecast of 154.53 million tons, due to lack of rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul;[bullish]
The export sales report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday showed that in the week ending December 29, the U.S. soybean export sales in the 2022/2023 marketing year increased by 721,000 tons, and the market estimated a net increase of 400,000 to 1.2 million tons. Among them, the net sales of exports to mainland China were 421,800 tons;[Neutral]
In the first week of 2023 (as of January 6, 2023), the national port soybean inventory this week was 5.1038 million tons, an increase of 190,300 tons or 3.73% from last week, and an increase of 1.2193 million tons or 31.39% from last year. 【Bad】
【Trading straregy】
The January USDA report mainly showed a sharp reduction in the production of new-crop US soybeans and Argentine soybeans, a slight increase in Brazilian soybean production, and a total reduction of 5.09 million tons in global soybean production. At the same time, the old-crop Brazilian soybean production and the new-crop global soybean initial stock were raised. The report is generally bullish for international soybean prices. The U.S. soybean futures price rose by 1.39% in 15 minutes after the report was released, and once again stood at the key position of 1,500 cents per bushel. Although Argentina’s soybean production has been lowered, Brazil’s soybean production is expected to be strong, South American soybean production is likely to recover, and the impact of La Niña is gradually weakening. The 22/23 soybean production increased by 29.91 million tons compared with the 21/22 year, and the consumption increased by only 1633. 10,000 tons, and the ending inventory is expected to increase to 103.5 million tons. In 22/23, it is expected that the global soybean supply and demand will first tighten and then loosen, and the US soybean price is also expected to show a high first and then a low. With the recovery of domestic soybean and soybean meal stocks, there are fewer domestic hot topics for speculation, and the later stage mainly follows the fluctuations of US soybeans. The trend of soybean meal is expected to be strong before the festival, and after the festival, the export volume of soybeans from South America will increase. Due to the obvious reduction in production in Argentina and the strong export demand for soybeans in Brazil, shipments in the first quarter may be slow. Due to the decline in yield per unit area and the increase in domestic demand for soybeans in the United States, the shipments of soybeans are expected to be relatively small. The DCE soybean meal price may remain high and fluctuate around the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the futures and spot prices will gradually converge to gradually converge the basis difference. The space above the soybean meal 05 contract saw 4100 yuan/ton, and the space below saw 3500-3600 yuan/ton.
【1. Market review】
(1) Futures market review
(2) Review of spot and basis prices
(3) Spot price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal
(4) Ratio of soybean oil to meal
【2. Foreign market analysis】
(1) Soybean Import Premiums and Discounts
(2) Export and import of soybeans
Brazil’s National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC) said that based on the queue of freighters, Brazil’s soybean exports in January 2023 will reach 1.969 million tons, higher than last week’s forecast of 1.315 million tons and higher than exports in December last year. The volume is 1.513 million tons. The revised soybean exports are still lower than the 2.28 million tons in January 2022. Some early planting areas in Mato Grosso have already begun harvesting soybeans for the 2022/23 season, but they tend to pick up pace in mid-January. In contrast, there will be more aged beans available for export in early 2022. Brazil’s soybean exports in 2022 (January-December) will reach 77.8 million tons, down from a record 86.6 million tons in 2021, due to lower soybean production in Brazil’s southern region.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its supply and demand report on Thursday, lowering its forecast for China’s soybean imports in 2022/23 to 96 million tons, down from a forecast of 98 million tons last month. The lowered imports remain above the 2021/22 forecast of 91.57 million tonnes. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted that China’s soybean production in 2022/23 would be 20.33 million tons, an increase of 1.93 million tons from the 18.4 million tons forecast in December and an increase of 23.96% from the previous year’s 16.4 million tons.
(3) U.S. Soybean Crush
(4) Weather and sowing conditions in South America
(5) December USDA supply and demand report
【3. Domestic market analysis】
(1) Domestic supply of soybeans and soybean meal
(2) Soybean crushing and soybean meal cost
(3) Feed Terminal Demand
At present, there are a large number of large pigs on hand, and the demand for feed is relatively strong. Due to the good profit, the downstream has acceptable acceptance of high-priced soybean meal and high-priced feed.
According to statistics from the China Feed Industry Association, in November 2022, the national industrial feed output will be 25.79 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. From January to November 2022, the national industrial feed production totaled 268.31 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons or 0.1% year-on-year. It can be seen that the national feed production in November continued the decline from September to October.
4. Soybean Meal Options and Operational Strategies
5. Soybean meal futures positions
Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP