There are only 2 real goals behind the data of 189 semiconductor companies in the U.S.

Original title: Behind the US blackmailing the data of 189 semiconductor companies, the real target is only 2

　　[文/观察者网 李焕宇]

While claiming that “this is their own choice”, they also said that “if we are not satisfied, additional measures may be taken.” In the past few days, the United States has redefined what “voluntary” means to the world.

As of November 8, 189 semiconductor companies, including TSMC and Samsung, have submitted their own information under the “voluntary” declared by the United States, and many of them involve sensitive information such as inventory and revenue.

Why does the US government blatantly extort data from so many companies? Chen Jing, a member of the Institute of Wind and Cloud and a columnist of the Observer Network, believes that the US move is intended to ensure the security of the supply chain of the local semiconductor industry, and for them, the biggest threat to this is the two non-US companies with advanced manufacturing processes— -TSMC, Samsung Electronics. Therefore, the United States ran out of more than 100 companies on the surface this time, but the actual target was only two. The ultimate goal was to beat the two giants through means such as grabbing orders and closing customers to improve the domestic chip manufacturing capabilities of the United States.

However, considering that many Chinese companies have business dealings with these two companies, this US move will also pose a big threat to Chinese companies.

A domestic fab engineer, Dr. Chen, told Observer.com that if the United States can obtain detailed customer, inventory and other information, not only the vests used by Chinese companies to deal with US sanctions will be dismantled, but also sensitive information of Chinese companies will be exposed. In the eyes of the US government, it will be a very unfavorable situation for Chinese companies.

　　189 semiconductor companies submit sensitive data to the U.S.

On September 23 this year, at a semiconductor supply chain summit held by the US Department of Commerce, in the name of “improving supply chain transparency”, participating companies were required to submit a questionnaire before November 8th, which involved a list of major customers. , Inventory and revenue share and many other sensitive corporate information.

Although the U.S. stated that it was entirely “voluntary” whether companies should submit data, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimundo has since publicly stated twice that if the U.S. is not satisfied with the content submitted by companies, it will not rule out taking some “follow-up measures”. “. According to the South Korean News Agency reported on November 10, 189 companies including TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix finally “voluntarily” submitted company data to the United States, and the above three companies also emphasized to the outside world that they have The submitted sensitive information is minimized and does not involve specific customer information.

Such “voluntary” behavior is really eye-opening. In its report on November 9th, CCTV pointed out unceremoniously that the United States is openly carrying out “data blackmail” in an attempt to plunder the “commercial secrets” of chip companies. However, Raimundo bluntly said at the White House press conference that day that the view that the US’s actions were “forced” was ridiculous. Every chief executive officer (CEO) I spoke to told me that it was good. Idea, can increase the transparency of the supply chain, thereby reducing bottlenecks, so they will submit information-this is their own choice.

Whether TSMC and Samsung are “voluntary” is the clearest public opinion in Taiwan and South Korea.

On November 8, facing Raimundo, who again made “voluntary” remarks, and Taiwan’s “Minister of Economy” Wang Meihua, who actively endorsed him, Taiwanese netizens angrily rebuked: “(Americans) are just banditry at all” and “Daxiong is the same. “Voluntarily” gave Fat Tiger toys”, “The bandits said that the people voluntarily handed over their money.”

The Kuomintang “legislator” Zheng Liwen also criticized that the DPP was busy calculating how the “referendum” at the end of the year would win over public opinion, sitting by and watching Taiwan’s economic lifeline be invaded. Taiwanese internet celebrity “House God” Zhu Liheng was even more angry, saying that the DPP authorities were “softer than soft-footed shrimp.”

In South Korea, South Korea’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Planning and Finance Hong Nam-ki said on November 9 that the South Korean government “has expressed concern to the United States” regarding Samsung and SK Hynix’s submission of confidential information to the US Department of Commerce. On the 13th of last month, South Korea’s ambassador to the United States made it clear that South Korean companies would not easily provide highly confidential information. At the same time, the South Korean government also conveyed the concerns of South Korean companies to the United States.

Chen Jing also said that the actions of the United States are definitely not a positive force in the international chip industry, but to make trouble. It is impossible for them to dredge the supply chain, because the United States is the initiator of the chip shortage. If it were not for the United States to target Chinese companies like Huawei, how could Chinese companies hoard chips? Therefore, if the United States wants to unblock the supply chain, it will only unblock it for itself.

　　Not hesitate to “tear the face”, the United States intends to TSMC, Samsung

So, the United States does not hesitate to “tear the face” of so many semiconductor companies and redefine what “voluntary” is for?

Chen Jing pointed out to Observer Network that the main consideration of the United States is to ensure the security of its own semiconductor industry supply chain. Like the semiconductor design sector, the United States has an advantage in this field, accounting for more than 60% of the global share. But when it comes to manufacturing, Intel in the United States is stuck on the 10nm process, while TSMC and Samsung have made breakthroughs in 7nm and 5nm, making the United States lag far behind, and foundry capabilities have begun to play out in the industry. The strategic influence expected by the US threatens the US’s competitiveness on advanced chips. Prior to this, Biden had organized several meetings between the US government and the chip industry in order to strengthen the status of the US in the industrial chain.

However, when the United States cannot win the next competition, they will not say that they cannot, and will target the two leading companies and describe Samsung and TSMC as threats to the security of the U.S. supply chain and corporate competitiveness. In Chen Jing’s view, this time the United States allowed semiconductor companies to “voluntarily” submit confidential information, with the targets being Samsung and TSMC. That is, the status of these two companies is dragged downward in terms of advanced manufacturing process and production capacity, and then the status of the US company is raised.

For example, if the U.S. does get detailed customer information this time, the U.S. will have a clear understanding of the needs of Samsung and TSMC’s customers, and he can introduce customers to American companies that meet their needs, such as GlobalFoundries and Intel. , You can even directly “do work” for client companies and prevent them from placing orders for Samsung and Intel.

Now, it is their target strategy to transfer high-end manufacturing capacity to the United States. Chen Jing predicts that since the United States has realized the importance of chip manufacturing capacity, it will continue to make trouble in the future, and will not be shaken. Orders like the example he just gave will inevitably occur. However, considering that both Samsung and TSMC have carried out so-called “desensitization” processing on the submitted data, the specific impact will depend on the subsequent interaction between the US government and these two companies.

　　Intel is eager to try

Looking at the recent actions of the US government in the semiconductor field, the “security” stick has indeed never left its hands. On April 12 this year, when President Biden took out a silicon wafer at the Semiconductor Conference (video conference) hosted by the White House and emphasized that “this is also infrastructure”, the deputy national security adviser stated that the Biden administration will “Lack of core” is regarded as a national security issue:

“Today, almost 100% of the manufacturing end is in East Asia, and 90% is manufactured by one company. This is a serious loophole.”

On November 9, when Raymond faced the media and continued to insist that semiconductor companies submit data on a “voluntary basis”, he did not forget to emphasize the security issue:

“I just said that the lack of domestic semiconductor production in the United States not only poses a threat to the economy, but also poses a threat to national security.”

The local giant Intel has long realized that the Biden administration attaches great importance to “security.” As early as March of this year, Intel’s new CEO Pat Gelsinger announced plans to spend US$20 billion (approximately RMB 130 billion) to build two new wafer fabs in the United States, thereby substantially increasing advanced chip manufacturing capabilities. , And open foundry business to external customers at the same time.

Seeing that Intel, which has been stuck in the 10-nanometer process for a long time, wanted to enter the foundry field dominated by TSMC, the public opinion in Taiwan at that time was not unexpectedly “bad”. Taiwan Semiconductor analyst Lu Xingzhi said that Intel’s confrontation with TSMC was “wrong direction.” In contrast, South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo believes that this is on the surface an Intel company’s decision. In fact, the US semiconductor industry represented by Intel and the US government can no longer tolerate the foundry sector being controlled by Samsung and TSMC. Determined to “grab meat” with them.

Korean worries soon became a reality. Only one month later, Biden said in front of semiconductor companies such as TSMC and Samsung at the Semiconductor Conference: “Our (U.S.) competitiveness depends on where and how you invest.” South Korean media shouted badly, “Today The Zaobao commented pessimistically: “This cooperation between Biden and Intel is gradually pushing Samsung Electronics into the predicament of having to give the President of the United States an “inauguration ceremony.”

Three months later, Intel threw out a “big pie”, saying that the company will not only launch five sets of chip manufacturing technologies in the next four years, but will also launch a new central processing unit (CPU) at least every year. The company has developed a plan to expand its foundry business, hoping to catch up with competitors such as TSMC and Samsung by 2025.

It’s worth noting that Intel is also a company that needs to “voluntarily” submit data to the US government this time, and it has also stated that it is “willing to provide data”, but as of now, it has not been queried about the company at the public level. data.

Alex Capri, a senior researcher at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, analyzed the “voluntary” operations of the US Department of Commerce to the BBC. He believed that the United States and TSMC are still in need of each other, but the United States supports Intel and other United States. The company’s strength is also accelerating, no doubt.

　　Will China be the target?

In addition to TSMC and Samsung, China is also a frequent visitor to the topic of chip security in the United States. At the Semiconductor Conference in April this year, Biden quoted a joint letter from 23 senators and 42 representatives: “China plans to dominate the semiconductor supply chain and invest considerable funds to achieve its goals.” Precision semiconductors rely on strategic competitors and there are risks.” . . . . .

But Chen Jing believes that compared with TSMC and Samsung, China is probably not the main target of the US government this time. Considering that the main purpose of the United States is to increase advanced production capacity, the United States may also grab the Chinese orders from Samsung and TSMC and send them to American companies. After all, compared with the ban, grabbing orders can create greater value. .

But even so, the danger of the United States targeting Chinese customers of various companies based on customer data is still not to be underestimated. A domestic fab engineer, Dr. Chen, analyzed to Observer.com that some Chinese companies now use “vest-piercing” methods to disguise themselves as “normal customers” of companies such as TSMC and Samsung in order to avoid US sanctions. If all is taken away, then this disguise is likely to no longer work. Considering this, the US action is likely to be a “killer move.”

Although both companies stated that they would “desensitize” the data and use industry classification instead of detailed customer orientation, Dr. Chen believes that this approach can play a limited role. After all, some cutting-edge companies have some characteristics in the products they need. Even if you don’t know the specific names of the customers, you can start from the product side and push back who the customers are.

“If the data in the hands of the U.S. government is detailed enough, then the confidentiality of the needs, inventory, business, nature, and use of products of Chinese client companies can be grasped, which will be a very unfavorable situation for Chinese companies.”

Editor in charge: Zhang Jianli