(Original title: 50% drop in three months, battery-grade lithium carbonate fell below 300,000 and downstream electric vehicles continued to cut prices!)
Today, according to the data released by Fubao Lithium Grid, the Fubao lithium carbonate index reported 266,500 yuan/ton, a drop of 10,000 yuan/ton, and the battery-grade lithium carbonate reported 293,000 yuan/ton, a drop of 10,000 yuan/ton; ) reported 252,500 yuan/ton, down 10,000 yuan/ton.
According to past data, at the beginning of 2023, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate had reached a historical high of 600,000 yuan/ton. In just three months, the price has dropped by more than 50%. At present, battery-grade lithium carbonate is one of the most common lithium-ion battery materials for electric vehicles, and its price rises and falls are closely related to the sales of new energy vehicles and the production capacity of lithium carbonate manufacturers.
Industry insiders said that the price drop is not only due to changes in market demand, but also due to the continuous increase in lithium production capacity in recent years. At the same time, the prices of battery raw materials such as nickel and lithium carbonate continue to decline, reducing the cost of some new energy vehicle companies, which also means that new energy vehicles may have more room for price cuts. In the future, it is not ruled out that there will be further declines in the market, and the focus needs to be on the status of terminal demand.
China auto market sparks price war
On the one hand, the price of upstream raw materials has fallen, and on the other hand, there is a price war for downstream new energy vehicles. The degree of market involution has made foreign companies shout too much.
Today, according to the Global Daily, the Deutsche Welle Chinese website published an article saying that the Chinese auto market has never been so volatile. Well-known auto expert Dudenhoff said that this wave of price wars is particularly fierce, “because Tesla is promoting price wars, hoping to gain a market monopoly position.” Tesla’s factory in Shanghai has very high profits, reaching 25%. , but other car dealers are not.
Previously, due to Tesla’s price cuts, electric car brands such as Xiaopeng and Weilai followed up with price cuts, and Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, etc. were not spared, passively sharing profits and cutting prices. At the beginning of March, the Hubei region even issued the highest subsidy for Dongfeng Citroen C6 with a direct drop of 90,000 yuan. The C6 model was sold out in an instant, and the degree of involution made car companies feel distressed.
Dudenhof said frankly that the current price war is a “big risk” for German automakers, because German brands have always made good profits in China, but now they have to face the problem of significantly reduced profits. What matters is capturing more market share in the electric vehicle segment, where competition is fiercest.
Passenger car sales pick up in February, but still below expectations
Regarding future car sales, the Cinda Securities research report shows that in February, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense were 1.618 million, +10.2% year-on-year, and +11.7% month-on-month; the retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense were 1.39 million, +10.4% year-on-year , +7.5% month-on-month. By brand: (1) self-owned brand retail sales of 710,000 vehicles, +29% year-on-year, +12% month-on-month; (2) mainstream joint venture brands retail sales of 480,000 vehicles, -12% year-on-year, -2% month-on-month; (3) luxury cars Retail sales of 200,000 vehicles, +23% year-on-year, +8% month-on-month. Passenger car sales picked up in February, but affected by policies such as last year’s halving of purchase tax and national new energy subsidies, some of the purchasing power was overdrawn in advance, and social life and production are still gradually recovering after the Spring Festival holiday. The overall recovery is strong. lower than previously expected.
In terms of new energy, the research report shows that in February new energy increased year-on-year. According to data from the Passenger Passenger Association, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers reached 30.6% in February, and the retail penetration rate reached 31.6%. In February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 496,000, a year-on-year increase of 56.1%, and a month-on-month increase of 27.5%, of which the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles were 347,000, a year-on-year increase of 41.5%; the wholesale sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 149,000, a year-on-year increase of 105.8% . Manufacturers whose wholesale sales exceeded 10,000 vehicles include: BYD Automobile 191,664, Tesla China 74,402, GAC Aian 30,086, SAIC Motor 23,289, Geely 23,283, Changan Auto 19,382, Lixiang 16,620 , NIO 12,157, SAIC-GM-Wuling 10,982, and Nezha 10,073. New energy sales resumed positive year-on-year growth, and the penetration rate returned to above 30% again.
The research report finally stated that the sales of ground supplements have improved, and it is optimistic that the auto market will continue to pick up in March-May. Recently, Hubei has kicked off local government subsidies. Anhui, Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan have also introduced similar subsidy policies. Enterprise cost loosening. According to the research, local subsidy support + offline auto shows to stimulate consumption + the price of raw materials such as lithium carbonate have fallen, sales in spring are expected to continue to improve.
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