Completely exploded! The more it falls, the more you buy, over 160 billion in bargain hunting!
On January 31st, the last trading day of January, the market rose and fell throughout the day. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index once again fell below 2,800 points. Only two industries, coal and banking, were in the red. The total net inflow of stock ETFs in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges exceeded 15 billion yuan. Among them, CSI 300-related ETF products have attracted more than 9 billion yuan in total, accounting for 60% of the total, and are still the well-deserved king of “gold attraction”. In addition, some popular track-type ETF products such as semiconductors, chips, and photovoltaics became the main force of “blood loss” yesterday.
In the first month of 2024, market volatility intensified, and funds accelerated their “buying the dip” through stock ETFs. The total net inflow of funds in a single month exceeded 160 billion yuan, setting a new high for net inflows of funds in a single month since August last year.
Data show that as of January 31, the management scale of 839 stock ETFs (statistical stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs) in the market exceeded 1.69 trillion yuan. Yesterday, the Shanghai Stock Index fell 1.48% and fell below 2,800 points again. In such a market, the total net inflow of stock ETFs in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is still as high as 15.286 billion yuan.
Yesterday, the CSI 300 ETF once again became the well-deserved “money-attracting” king. The total gold-absorbing amount of CSI 300-related ETF products in the market reached 9.032 billion yuan. Among them, Harvest CSI 300 “attracted 3.643 billion yuan in gold” in a single day, ranking first in the day’s net capital inflows, with the latest scale being 69.233 billion yuan. Followed closely by E Fund CSI 300 ETF, the single-day net inflow of funds also reached 2.743 billion yuan. The single-day net inflow of Huatai-Berry CSI 300 ETF and ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF was 1.785 billion yuan and 698 million yuan respectively.
In addition, the Shanghai Composite 50 ETF (510050) and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF Huaxia (510330), which are in the broad market direction, continued to resist the decline with the increasing support funds. The net inflow of SSE 50 ETF reached 1.724 billion yuan yesterday, and the net inflow in the past 10 days reached 18.611 billion yuan. The latest scale reached 95.965 billion yuan, setting a new high and approaching the 100 billion yuan mark. CSI 300 ETF China’s net inflow reached 698 million yuan yesterday, and the net inflow in the past 10 days reached 15.655 billion yuan, with the latest scale reaching 59.557 billion yuan.
The person in charge of index products of a large fund company in Shenzhen said that in fact, there have been many situations in history where funds have been heavily priced into broad-based ETFs. After the index reached a periodic low, funds increased their positions significantly through ETFs, and then the index trend reversed. The risk premium of the CSI 300 Index has reached a high point in the past decade, exceeding the value at the end of 2018.
Judging from the data since 2018, every time the risk premium of the CSI 300 Index reaches a stage high, during the process of downward convergence, the index is always accompanied by a considerable rebound.
A fund industry researcher in Beijing believes that since the beginning of 2024, ETFs have continued to see net inflows, contributing the main incremental funds to A-shares. Medium and long-term funds are deployed in ETFs to send positive signals to the market, which will help repair short-term market sentiment and improve risk appetite. It is expected that as A-shares improve, emerging industries and theme ETFs may still be important tools for investors to participate in structural opportunities amid increasing corporate profit differentiation and structural conditions.
Judging from the ranking of net capital outflows yesterday, some popular track-type ETF products such as semiconductors, chips, photovoltaics, and securities companies have become the main force in “blood loss”. Among them, the Guolian Semiconductor ETF Fund had a net outflow of 162 million yuan in a single day. In addition, the Wells Fargo Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, China Chip ETF, and Huatai-PineBridge Photovoltaic ETF ranked first in net outflows.
As of January 31, the three major A-share indexes all closed with six consecutive negative monthly lines. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell by more than 6% in January, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by more than 13% in January, and the ChiNext Index fell by more than 16% in January. As market volatility intensified, broad-based ETFs led by the CSI 300 reappeared in a “big drop, big buy” trend.
According to data from the China Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center, in January, the total net capital inflow of all stock ETF funds (including A-share ETFs and cross-border ETFs) reached 168.179 billion yuan, setting a new single-month net capital inflow since August last year.
In January, the CSI 300 ETF product “dominated the list.” E Fund CSI 300 ETF “attracted 39.834 billion yuan in gold” in a single month. The net inflows of Harvest CSI 300 ETF and Huatai-Berry CSI 300 ETF in a single month were 30.947 billion yuan and 30.732 billion yuan respectively. The net inflows of ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF in a single month reached 30.947 billion yuan and 30.732 billion yuan, respectively. 24.655 billion yuan. In addition, several products such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF, CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF, GEM 50 ETF, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF ranked among the top net inflows of funds in a single month.
Industrial Fund believes that with the recent market adjustment, the judgment that it is in the bottom area is still valid, and it is expected to gradually come out of the bottom in the future. Specifically: first, the valuation of the major indexes has reached the low level of the past fifteen years, and I believe that the historical law of mean reversion still holds; second, with the end of the annual report preview, the market’s performance risks are expected to come to an end; third, in January PMI data was released, export orders and price indicators have improved to a certain extent, and policies are expected to be effective in the following quarter; fourth, in terms of allocation direction, weight is still given priority, and subsequent growth and technology sectors are expected to rebound in rotation.
Yongying Fund said that looking backward, it will continue to maintain a neutral to optimistic judgment on the future trend of A-shares. First, the market’s expectations for stable growth due to policies have been reversed; second, the inclusion of market value management in the assessment of central enterprise managers has boosted market confidence in the medium and long term; third, the recent continued net inflow of funds from the CSI 300 ETF has helped improve market sentiment. With the reversal of policy expectations, market sentiment and market confidence have been significantly boosted. Superimposed on the current relative bottom position of A-shares, the opportunities in the mid-cycle dimension still outweigh the risks. We maintain a neutral to optimistic judgment on the subsequent trend of A-shares.