Source: Donghai Futures Author: Donghai Futures
Research report text
【soybean】
1. Core logic: U.S. soybeans still lack directionality, and the pattern of high volatility remains unchanged. Argentina’s export stimulus policy has not brought the desired effect so far, and US soybeans still rebounded at the beginning of the policy. At present, the relaxation of China’s epidemic policy has boosted the overall trading sentiment in the commodity market. As Russia’s crackdown on Ukraine’s infrastructure intensified in the Black Sea region, sea and river ports were forced to suspend operations to varying degrees, and grain export transshipment data slowed down. Market panic and worries have also boosted oil and oil stocks in the near future. In the later period, the support of US soybean oil weakened, and the US soybean may maintain a weak shock.
2. Operation suggestion: Wait and see.
3. Risk factors: The weather in South America is abnormal.
4. Background analysis：
overnight futures: On December 7, soybeans in the CBOT market closed up, with US soybeans 01 up 18.5 or 1.27% to 1473.5 cents per bushel.
CFTC position report: As of the week of November 29, 2022, non-commercial long positions in CBOT soybean futures increased by 13,948 to 151,317, and short positions decreased by 3,021 to 64,109.
important news：
BAKE: Argentina’s 2022/23 soybean acreage estimate is expected to be revised down due to continued drought, with the current forecast at 16.7 million hectares.
USDA Private Exporter Report: Export sales of 240,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year. Export and sales of 264,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in 2022/2023.
CONAB: As of December 3, Brazil’s soybean planting rate was 90.7%, compared with 86.1% last week and 95.1% in the same period last year.
BAKE: As of December 1, the soybean planting rate in Argentina was 29.1%, compared with 19.5% last week and 43.3% in the same period last year.
【soybean meal】
1. Core logic: Soybean and soybean meal inventories in oil mills have seen inflection points, supply expectations have been fulfilled, spot stocks are weak, high basis levels have fallen in an orderly manner, soybean meal top pressure is high, and high and far month-to-month high basis levels still have strong support for the 01 contract. Domestically imported rapeseeds gradually arrive at the factory, crushing resumes, and supply gradually increases. Demand is off-season, high pressure is high, and it is more supported by the price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal.
2. Operation suggestion: wait and see.
3. Risk factors: Shipment risk for U.S. soybean export.
4. Background Analysis：
squeeze profit: On December 7, there was no change in the December-January premiums and discounts in the US West, and the hedging gross profit in the December-January period rose by 0.8 to -52 and -548 yuan/ton compared with yesterday. There was no change in the premiums and discounts in the US Gulf from December to January, and the gross hedging profit in the US Gulf from December to January rose by 0.9 to 29,440 yuan/ton compared with yesterday. Brazil’s January discount rose by 9 cents per bushel, and Brazil’s gross hedging profit in January fell by 15 to -393 yuan/ton compared with yesterday.
spot market: On December 7, the turnover of soybean meal in major oil factories across the country was 328,000 tons, an increase of 18,700 tons from the previous trading day, of which 124,000 tons were spot transactions and 204,000 tons were turnover on a far-month basis. In terms of start-up, the national start-up rate rose to 70.92% compared with the previous trading day. (mysteel)
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