In November, the US economy created 127,000 new private sector jobs, well below the 200,000 Bloomberg consensus and 239,000 jobs created the previous month. This is the smallest increase since January 2021.
“Inflection points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggests that Federal Reserve tightening is impacting job creation and rising wages,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP extension. “Plus, companies are no longer in hyper-substitution mode. Fewer people are quitting and the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing.”
Any confirmation of the slowdown in the US labor market in Friday’s job report could strengthen expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy from the Fed. The most popular hypothesis is that the US central bank will raise interest rates by half percentage point in the meeting of December 13-14, after four consecutive speeches of 75 basis points each.