This week’s attention: Social financing was weak in April, and stable growth will be placed in a more prominent position in the future. The increase in social financing in April was 910.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 946.8 billion yuan, and the financing needs of residents and enterprises declined year-on-year. In terms of items, new household RMB loans decreased by 217 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 745.3 billion yuan; new enterprises and institutions were 578.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 176.8 billion yuan, which was mainly due to the year-on-year increase in new medium and long-term loans to enterprises and institutions A decrease of 395.3 billion yuan, and short-term loans increased slightly year-on-year.According to the Chinese peoplebankThe relevant person in charge answered a reporter’s question. Recently, the epidemic and the Ukraine crisis have led to increased risks and challenges, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of my country’s economic development environment have increased. The impact of the epidemic on the real economy is further manifested. Factors such as shortage of factors and rising production costs such as raw materials are superimposed. Enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have more operational difficulties, and the demand for effective financing has dropped significantly.
The stock of social financing in April was 326.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the growth rate in March. Preliminary statistics show that the stock of social financing at the end of April 2022 was 326.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%.Among them, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 200.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; the balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy was 2.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; the balance of entrusted loans was 10.93 trillion yuan , down 0.8% year-on-year; the balance of trust loans was 4.12 trillion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year; undiscountedbankThe balance of acceptance bills was 2.83 trillion yuan, down 21.8% year-on-year; the balance of corporate bonds was 31.3 trillion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year; the balance of government bonds was 55.04 trillion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year; the balance of domestic stocks of non-financial companies was 9.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%.
In April, M2 increased by 10.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.8pct higher than that of the previous month; M1 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4pct higher than that of the previous month.currencyThe balance of (M2) was 249.97 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and the growth rate was 0.8pct higher than the previous month; the narrow money (M1) balance was 63.61 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and the growth rate was 0.4pct higher than the previous month.
Social financing was weak in April, and stable growth will be placed in a more prominent position in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to infrastructure and real estate related targets.According to the Chinese peoplebankThe person in charge answered the reporter’s question. In the next stage, the People’s Bank of China will, in accordance with the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, put stable growth in a more prominent position, increase the implementation of a prudent monetary policy, and make better use of the total amount of monetary policy tools. It has dual functions of structure and structure, speeding up the implementation of the policies and measures that have been introduced, and proactively planning incremental policy tools to support the economic operation within a reasonable range.
Investment suggestions: 1) The trend of infrastructure investment is improving, and relevant companies have sufficient orders.China Railway、China Railway Construction(not covered),Anhui Construction Engineering(not covered). 2) The real estate financing environment is improving, and the macro environment is improving.performanceBetter performing home improvement companyOriental Yuhong、Keshun sharesWait. 3) The demand for stable growth is improving, and the dividend yield of the cement sector is relatively high.Shangfeng Cement、Conch Cement、Tower GroupWait.
Sector gains and losses: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.8% this week,GEM refers toup 5.0%,straight flushAll-A rose 5.4%, and construction materials (Shenwan) rose 2.1%. In the subdivisions of the building materials industry, the indices of glass, cement, refractory materials, pipes and other building materials rose by +7.6%, +0.9%, +1.5%, +4.9% and +3.5% respectively.
Top five gainers:NorthGlass(+34.7%)、Conch new material(+22.7%)、Qilian Mountains(+21.0%)、Nachuan shares(+18.1%)、Guotong shares(+16.8%)
Top five losers:Changhai Co., Ltd.(-2.5%)、Huaxin Cement(-2.3%)、Subot(-2.1%)、Conch Cement(-1.8%)、Shangfeng Cement(-1.6%)
Valuation of each sector: 1) The latest TTM price-earnings ratio of the Cement Shenwan Index is 8.27 times, and the price-earnings ratio range from the beginning of the year in 2015 is 6.32 times ~ 32.79 times; The rate range is 1.02 times to 2.67 times. 2) The latest TTM price-earnings ratio of the Glass Shenwan Index is 11.60 times, and the range of the price-earnings ratio since the beginning of the year in 2015 is 10.97 times~121.46 times; 5.61 times. 3) The latest TTM price-earnings ratio of the Pipe Shenwan Index is 29.21 times, and the price-earnings ratio range from the beginning of the year in 2015 is 19.38 times~88.39 times; 5.59 times. 4) The latest TTM price-earnings ratio of the refractory Shenwan Index is 20.77 times, and the range of the price-earnings ratio since the beginning of the year in 2015 is 13.34 times to 217.94 times; times ~ 5.88 times. 5) The latest TTM price-earnings ratio of other building materials Shenwan index is 21.29 times, and the range of price-earnings ratio from the beginning of the year in 2015 is 17.09 times to 91.37 times; the latest price-to-book ratio of other building materials Shenwan index is 2.52 times, and the range of price-to-book ratio since the beginning of 2015 is 2.07 times ~7.42 times.
Key data tracking: Cement: The national cement price index fell by 1.4% month-on-week and 3.7% month-on-month. Glass: Glass futures prices fell 4.2% week-on-week, and the market price of float flat glass (4.8/5mm) rose 0.3% week-on-week.Raw materials: Thermal coal prices down 24.5% w/w, UK Brent originaloil priceWeek-on-week down 5.0%. Real estate infrastructure: Real estate sales in the first three months of 2022 decreased by 13.8% year-on-year, and new construction area decreased by 17.5% year-on-year.
Industry trends: 1) China Thermal Insulation and Energy Conservation Materials Association: vigorously develop green buildings and green building materials, the Central Office and the State Office issued a major document to promote the construction of the county; 2) BIPV online: like it! Government-invested buildings are forced to install photovoltaics, otherwise approval and completion acceptance will not be granted, and energy storage subsidies will be 0.3 yuan/kWh; 3) Digital cement network:
Cement enterprises in many places ushered in the “extended version” of off-peak production, and waited for demand to pick up under the signal of steady growth; 4) Tujie: The increase in raw material prices has eaten up billions of profits, and what will happen to the future after the cost advantage of coating enterprises has been lost 5) People’s Bank of China: April 2022 Financial Statistics Report.
Next week’s event reminder: 1) May 16:Tianan New Materials、Pioneer New Materials、Mona Lisa、Oriental Yuhong、South 玻 A shareholderThe conference is held. 2) May 17:Lidao New Materials、Macro and Technology、National Inspection Group、Zhengyuan shares、Shenzhen Ruijie、Tiantie Group、Huamin shares、Beijing LearShareholders’ meetingconvened.
3) May 18:Huali shares、Yuma shade、Keshun shares、Sanwa pipe、Kin Long Hardware、NorthGlassShareholders’ meeting was held. 4) May 19:lion dragon、Create a lawn、Fujian Cement、Qingsong Jianhua、Nachuan shares、Dongpeng Holdings、Hainan Ruize、Pu Nai shares、Hainan Development、Cangzhou Pearl、Jinglan Technology、Shangfeng CementShareholders’ meeting was held. 5) May 20:three trees、Astronomer、Huaxin Cement、Sichuan Golden Summit、Xiongsu Technology、World Famous Technology、Poly International、Jiayu shares、Red Wall Shares、Diou Home Furnishing、AIA ceiling、Yangzi New Materials、Almaden、Leizhi Group、Zhengwei New Materials、Happy Heart、Luyang Energy SavingShareholders’ meeting was held.
Investment suggestions: 1) The trend of infrastructure investment is improving, and relevant companies have sufficient orders.China Railway、China Railway Construction(not covered),Anhui Construction Engineering(not covered). 2) The real estate financing environment is improving, and the macro environment is improving. Pay attention to home improvement and building materials companies with better performanceOriental Yuhong、Keshun sharesWait. 3) The demand for stable growth is improving, and the dividend yield of the cement sector is relatively high. Pay attention to Shangfeng Cement,Conch Cement、Tower GroupWait. 4) The future space of BIPV industry is open, pay attentionSoutheast GridWait. 5) Leading domestic UTG companies and other sub-sectors have performed wellTriumph TechnologyWait.
Risk warning: raw material prices may rise or exceed expectations; downstream demand may be lower than expected; environmental protection policies may be repeated; industry competition may intensify.
(Article Source:Great Wall Securities）