While EU energy ministers postpone the decision on measures to resolve the gas crisisincluding the price capthe Italians are wondering if it will actually be possible to stay warm next winter, also in light of the new Cingolani plan.
From an analysis by the independent climate think tank “ECCO”it is clear how the demand for gas in the period from November to Marchexpected at approximately 37 billion standard cubic meters compared to 40.4 billion in recent years (estimates based on data from the Ministry of Ecological Transition), both satisfied by existing infrastructures and supplies. In particular, the current infrastructures, the new contract with Algeria for 6 billion cubic meters, of which ECCO analysts have assumed between 1 and 2.5 already available in the winter period, and 90% storage (approximately 17 billion cubic meters ) should supply between 37.7 and 40.9 billion cubic meters in the winter season from November to March.
The good news is therefore that, between new imports and storage, in the next 12 months, we should have more gas available than on average we consume: in 2021, annual gas consumption was 76 billion cubic meters, while in 2023 we could have more than 80 billion cubic meters available.
The bad news is that the calculations made so far by the government are based on annual needs, without considering the daily peaks during which new suppliers (first of all Libya, Algeria and Norway), may not be able to meet Italian demand.
ECCO has calculated that the theoretical capacity of existing infrastructures, excluding connections with Russiafor a total of 529 million cubic meters / day it is potentially able to satisfy the maximum daily demand recorded in recent years in the winter period. However, not all pipelines, Libya in particular, have enough gas to ensure full capacity.
A winter without Russian gas is possible, even with peaks of cold
For this reason, the ECCO analysts have estimated the adequacy of the existing infrastructures during any peaks by comparing the daily gas demand and supply in the winter period and assuming that they have to give up Russian supplies, the new regasification plants in Piombino and Ravenna and the old ones. coal-fired power plants.
“We have reconstructed a possible profile, based on the data of maximum input of gas pipelines, storage and national production in recent years: a value of 345 million cubic meters per day is obtained, against a peak demand last winter of 378 million. smc per day, including 10 million exports“, explains Matteo Leonardico-founder and executive director of national policies of ECCO.
To reach the winter peaks it is therefore necessary to resort to storagewhich become essential, with contributions higher than the peaks reached in recent years but in any case well below the nominal capacity (according to data from the Ministry of Ecological Transition in the period January-July 2022, stocks increased by 8038.9%).
However, for technical reasons, the storages cannot be used all of them. In Italy, for example, the strategic reserve, equal to 4.5 billion cubic meters, can only be used in cases of extreme emergency with the green light given by the Ministry of Economic Development.
It goes without saying how the eventual interruption of Russian supplies pays off savings are a central resource to give safety to the system, reduce the pressure on the storages and keep them longer. Considering that many of the savings will be driven by price reasons, the use of rationing becomes less likely. The more we save in an orderly manner and with the participation of the entire community, the more we secure the system and reduce the pressure on storage.
The alternative solutions proposed by ECCO
However, the problem could recur in the winter of 2023-2024. According to ECCO analysts on the one hand politics will have to decide how and to whom to distribute economic resources for to face the price crisis and to whom to ask for savings and interruptions if these should occur be necessary. On the other hand, to understand how much the European REPowerEU package, which asks to anticipate climate goals by accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to efficiency e renewables, is the best structural option in the face of the protracted crisis.
Furthermore, economic resources should be directed towards the diffusion of household appliances of category and efficient consumptionreviewing the expensive and not expensive plant selective of current bonuses, reserving resources for the most vulnerable, without associating them with building renovations and introducing higher efficiency standards to the business of a whole range of electrical equipment, from refrigerators to home modems.
For large companies, whose taxation and parafiscality have a lower impact on the tariff, the spaces for intervention are limited and necessarily include tax credit and additional incentives (for example subsidized credit and guarantee systems) for companies that invest in energy efficiency, renewables and green hydrogenwith a view to disengaging from the gas.
Detaching the price of renewables from the price of gas in the electricity market, of which yes talks more and more, according to ECCO analysts it is an emergency measure that must be done at the same time as one complete proposal for the reform of the electricity market functional to the development of renewableswhich, as per national targets, is expected to supply 70-80% of electricity by 2030, and the decarbonisation of the electricity sector in 2035 as per the G7 commitment and in line with the recommendations of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
If gas is expensive, and little can be done about it, it goes beyond the support the permanence of a superbonus / ecobonus structural system ensured able to bring energy efficiency to homes.
In the end, for the reduction of excise duties on petrol and diesel, selective criteria or cross compliance should be applied. Unconditional as it currently is, it is not a support for families for inflation but an incentive for those who use the car. For the transport bonus, on the other hand, the strategy of Germany should be emulated, which has been enormously successful, without on the contrary increasing transport rates as happened recently in one of the most polluted metropolises in Europe, namely Milan.