Source: Hehe Futures Author: Hehe Futures
The text of the research report
one,Shanghai CopperTransactions of the main futures contracts
On September 22, the Shanghai Copper 2210 contract on the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed at 62760, up 0.26% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 77,000 lots, a decrease of 12,000 lots from the previous trading day. 1,000 lots.
2. Spot market price
On September 19, 1# spot price in important copper markets: the average spot price in the Yangtze River was 63520, up 700 from yesterday; the average spot price in Guangdong was 63490, up 820 from yesterday; the average spot price in Wuhan was 63620, up 650 from yesterday; the average spot price in Chongqing was 63670 , up 650 from yesterday; the average spot price in Beijing was 63620, up 650 from yesterday.
3. Copper fundamentals and market outlook analysis
On the macro level, the National Bureau of Statistics released the investment and sales data of commercial housing from January to August 2022. The overall recovery of sales was weak, the downward trend of new construction continued, and the funds of housing enterprises were still under pressure.
In the next step, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will take various measures to promote the structural reform of the housing supply side, implement urban renewal actions, implement rural construction actions, and accelerate the development of affordable rental housing.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, has introduced measures to support cities in need in promoting the construction and delivery of overdue and difficult-to-deliver residential projects in the form of special loans from policy banks. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time in a row by 75 basis points, and the rate of interest rate hikes reached 300 basis points. The US dollar index continued to hit new highs, suppressing commodity prices.
On the fundamentals, supply side, the output of two major copper suppliers, Chile and Peru, has recently declined. Chile, the world‘s largest copper mine, went on strike due to safety issues, and Indonesia banned the export of raw copper.
On the demand side, the entire real estate market is still the main drag on copper consumption. From January to August, real estate development investment fell by 7.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month. With the arrival of the peak consumption season of Gold Nine and Silver Ten, the overall consumption boom has rebounded slightly, especially in the power investment, infrastructure projects and new energy sectors.
From the disk, after falling below 70,000 points in mid-June, it began to fall rapidly, and the lowest point in mid-July reached 53,300 points. The non-ferrous sector has rebounded recently, and Shanghai copper is expected to continue to fluctuate.
4. Trading strategy suggestions
Neutral wait and see.
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