MILANO – Istat data for the second quarter of the year (April-June 2021) confirm the recovery of employment after the shock of the anti-Covid lockdowns, especially in the wake of temporary employees. A fragility that is partly due to the “prudential strategies of companies which, while waiting to understand the evolution of the pandemic and the effect on the stability of the economic cycle recovery, tend to establish employment relationships that are easier to break off”. But the gap with 2019 is still wide, especially for women, young people and foreigners. And there remains a recovery trend that stopped in July, as the most recent monthly surveys have shown and as the same institute recalls in its report. Another difficulty complained by companies should also be noted: “The vacancy rate, equal to 1.8%, shows sustained growth (+0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2021) – says Istat – reaching a level never recorded since 2016 (the start year of the series); in trend terms, an exceptionally marked recovery of the rate is observed, equal to 1.0 percentage point “.
The autumn of the missing workers: companies are looking for 400,000 people
by Luca Piana
The restart of the labor market is “at term”
Here are the numbers released by the Institute. “In the second quarter of 2021 there was an increase of 338 thousand employed (+ 1.5%) compared to the previous quarter and a growth of 523,000 units over the same period of 2020 “, explains Istat, detailing that” the economic growth is mainly linked to the growth of temporary employees (+226,000, +8.3) against an increase of 80,000 permanent employees (+ 0.5%) and 33,000 self-employed people (+ 0.7%). The employment rate in the second quarter is 58% (+1 point on the first quarter) “. The same Institute recalls that” the monthly data for July show a halt in the growth trend recorded between February and June (employment -23 thousand, -0.1%) “.
In a box dedicated to the “point” on the recovery of the labor market, the Institute notes that in the second quarter of 2021 employment therefore returns to growth after five quarters of progressive decline, “in a context of general reactivation of the labor market. In fact, the increase in the number of employed people is associated with that of the unemployed (+514 thousand) and the sharp reduction in inactive people aged 15-64 (-1 million 253 thousand), intensely increased following the health emergency with the closure of many activities and the limitation of travel. The employment recovery observed compared to the second quarter of 2020 – which represented the negative peak (1.2 million fewer employees in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter of 2019) – involved more those who were the first to suffer the effects of the pandemic: employed in services and temporary workers, with greater repercussions for young people, women and foreigners “.
At the same point, the report details that “the increase in employment that characterizes the second quarter of 2021 exclusively concerns fixed-term employment, the most affected at the beginning of the pandemic; the incidence of temporary employees on total employees rises to 16.8%, after reaching 14% in the second quarter of 2020 (it was 17.2% in the second quarter of 2019). 4.1%). Employees with permanent contracts also decrease in the second quarter of 2021, albeit slightly, recording a decrease of 202 thousand units (-1.3%) compared to 2019. Self-employed workers without employees continue to decrease, showing the more consistent gap with the pre-crisis period (-273 thousand compared to the second quarter 2019, -6.9%), immediately followed by the self-employed with employees whose number, despite the very slight recovery in the second quarter of 2021, is still 74 thousand units lower than that of the second quarter of 2019 (-5.3%) “.
The gap remains with the pre-pandemic
The annual comparison, or with the second quarter of 2020 when the Covid emergency exploded, shows similar dynamics. “The increase in employment (+523 thousand units, + 2.3%) – details Istat – involves only temporary employees (+573 thousand, + 23.6%); in fact it continues, albeit with less intensity , the decrease in permanent employees (-29 thousand, -0.2%) and self-employed persons (-21 thousand, -0.4%). Both full-time and part-time employees are growing (+1, 8% and + 4.8%, respectively). The number of unemployed is increasing (+514 thousand in one year), while inactive people between 15 and 64 years of age are decreasing markedly (-1 million 253 thousand, -8.5 % in one year), after five quarters of progressive growth “.
In its in-depth analysis, Istat also notes that “employment still remains below pre-pandemic levels, with 678,000 fewer employees than in the second quarter of 2019”. The women they are still 370 thousand less, with a -3.7% compared to -2.3% for men. Also for the Young people the same is true: strong recovery in the second quarter, but still 199 thousand less than in the same period of 2019. foreigners: in the last quarter analyzed the number of foreign workers rose by 4.4% against the + 2.1% of Italians, but compared to the second quarter of 2019 the gap is 7.7% compared to -2.3%.
At the sectoral level, agriculture and industry “recovered the employment losses suffered in 2020, which were decidedly more modest than those of the services sector; despite the latter, in the second quarter of 2021, showing a decidedly positive trend, the employed are still 768 thousand less (-4.6%) than those of the second quarter of 2019. Le intellectual and technical professions they are the only ones to show no signs of recovery in the second 2021, which instead is more intense for entrepreneurs and managers and for unskilled professions “.
Interest rates are also based on these numbers. The employment rate in the 15-64 age bracket, equal to 58%, shows an increase in economic terms (+ 1% on the first quarter) which is associated with the decrease in the unemployment rate and the inactivity rate 15-64 years; the unemployment rate falls below 10%, after the growth of the previous quarter: it reaches 9.8% (-0.3 points in three months); the inactivity rate also decreased (-0.8 points, to 35.6%). Also in this case, the provisional data for July show the economic stability of the employment rate, with slight variations in the unemployment rates (-0.1 points) and inactivity (+0.1 points).
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