In the midst of a greater inflow of foreign currency via the agricultural dollar, the import demand recorded a 75% drop in the last nine days, according to an analysis by the consulting firm EcoGo. The abrupt decrease responds to the hoarding of the Central Bank in the exchange market and to the greater restrictions imposed by the Government to prevent the outflow of foreign currency.
Indeed, purchases by importers amounted to USD 142 million daily before the entry into force of the new scheme that favors regional economies with a differentiated exchange rate of $340. The amount claimed plummeted to USD 36 million per day.
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Agricultural dollar, repressed demand and IMF
For the director of the economic consulting firm, Sebastian Menescaldithe decrease in the acquisition of dollars to import is linked to the urgency of the Government to make reserves for pay the next maturity with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for USD 830 million.
“What it is showing is that the liquidity level of international reserves is very low or non-existent. What they have to do is buy as many dollars as possible and even sweep the demand for the payment of imports“, said the economist in dialogue with PROFILE.
From his perspective, the situation is “critical” since last Monday Argentina lacked sufficient own funds to pay the multilateral organization. In fact, Economía resorted to a short-term loan from the Development Bank of Latin America of USD 1,000 million and the rest in yuan of the swap with China to pay the USD 2.660 million.
The lack of supply for importing companies would result in extra pressure on inflationin the opinion of Menescaldi, because they would breach the pact with the Government to maintain prices in exchange for having access to dollars.
“In order not to incur commercial defaults, companies maybe they have to buy the dollars in the MEP to be able to pay them. This higher level of uncertainty will be transferred to prices. August will probably have a higher rise“, predicted the economic analyst.
Greater restrictions for access to official dollars
In addition to the application of COUNTRY tax to the purchase of foreign currency to import services and goods, the restrictions were reinforced through a resolution of the Federal Administration of Public Revenues (AFIP) that limits access to the official dollar.
The new red tape reduced by 25% the amount assigned for the acquisition of foreign currency for import purposes through the Financial Economic Capacity (CEF) system, which establishes the allowed quota according to the sworn declarations of the companies.
The BCRA cut its buying streak
In a context of scarcity of international reserves, the Banco Central cut the buying streak of the last wheels and sold USD 99 million in the foreign exchange marketdespite the extraordinary inflow of foreign currency from the agricultural dollar.
Within the framework of the fourth edition of the Export Increase Program (PIE), the field liquidated more than $208 million but the BCRA could not add purchases as in the previous seven days.
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The agricultural dollar has already met 68% of the objective for August
So far, they entered through the PIE a accumulated USD 1,356 million, 68% of what the Government expected for all of August. However, that the monetary authority has placed itself on the selling side is bad news for the ruling party.
Sources from the economic team had confirmed to PROFILE that they were seeking to speed up the liquidation of agriculture to strengthen the coffers of the Central Bank against the payment of USD 830 million to the IMF, set for Friday, August 4. The idea was not to break a record negative level of reserves, which are at the lowest point in the last 17 years.
Despite the attempts of the Ministry of Economy to shore up the bank’s weak holdings, already more than $20 billion lost since the first business day of 2023. This Wednesday, the gross was USD 24,003 million and the net is around -USD 10,000 million according to private estimates.
MF / You