Does Argentina register a conservative turn, or is there a rooting of progressive visions? The latest report from the UBA Pulsar Observatory tries to delve into the ideological preferences and beliefs of Argentines, looking for trends that could mark the immediate future. The work maintains that a change in the assessment of Argentines in relation to the private sector is consolidated and the preference for the participation of private companies in the economy is growing. But although more space is claimed for the business initiative, the request for a certain control of the State is maintained.
The study also notes “a general concern for security and the fight against crime” and a consensus to increase penalties for insecurity and grant more power to the police. However, n divisions appear when extremes are reached: there is a high rejection of the free bearing of arms.
Seeking complexity seems to be the objective of the researchers, since they deliberately sought to avoid binary models to classify ideological preferences, but rather infer them from the answers of the respondents on different aspects on three axes: beliefs about freedom and equality ; Impressions about public order and the role of the State in our country.
“Society avoids labels: sometimes it is easier to say that society moved to the left or to the right and the truth is that we find a mosaic of preferences that we try to interpret and understand. There are many complex positions that go beyond party identities, political polarization, whether you are an official party or an opposition party, whether you are a left-right”, points out Augusto Reina, political scientist and director of the Pulsar Observatory of the University of Buenos Aires, a study center specializing in public opinion that has three research programs: one on social beliefs, another on political monitoring, and a third on presidential debates, “which is our second research agenda of the year and we hope to finalize it in October,” he explains.
Augusto Reina, political scientist, director of Pulsar, professor at the UBA
The study concludes that “we are neither bipolar nor three-way: we are four segments with asymmetries” within each space.
Reina explains that the strategy was to “ask society about different issues that identify social issues and then put them together, like a puzzle, putting together all those who are in a high level of agreement: such as surrogacy, homoparental adoption, possession of arms, among others, with other positions regarding what is the role that the State must have in the economy, for example. Based on that, instead of a two-dimensional, double input shaft, we put together something four-dimensional. It seemed a bit richer to us in terms of understanding a mosaic of ideological issues that have associations and tendencies.
Taking into account the positions of Argentines in the “public-private” and “liberty-equality” dimensions, four ideological profiles were built:
• Private (preference for the private sector to be the provider of public services and to favor the autonomy of the sector with respect to the State)
• Statists (they are in favor of intervention and the active role of the State in the economy and society)
• Progressives (they express their preference for low state regulation in matters of private life)
• Conservatives (they prefer that the State regulate matters of private life)
In the economic aspect, 30% said they were privatists and another 30% statists, while in social values, 19% defined themselves as progressive and 18% conservative.
As might be expected, in the voters of Together for Change and Liberty Avanza there is a greater preference for the market, while in Unión por la Patria there is greater support for a state that intervenes in the economy. However, “among UP voters there seems to be a repositioning of their economic visions towards a higher valuation of the private sector” and even among libertarians there is a small portion of “statists”. (See infographic)
For Reina, this result confirms that “many times the electorate tends to be interpreted as if they were monolithic entities, where everyone responds and feels represented by all the positions of the party or its leader. What we see is not true, the positions of Argentine society on public debates precede in many cases the party identities. You can’t explain everything through three or four labels. I think the exercise is to get rid of intellectual laziness and see what this implies, to see the plurality ”she points out.
Some future trends
Beyond the nuances, it seems clear to researchers that there are some clear trends that mark a change from previous years.
“Contrary to a somewhat established idea, we find that there is a certain preference for a retraction of the State in the private sphere, a slight retraction of the State in the economic sphere would seem to be a principle of change in the historical trend”, explains the UBA researcher. “But on the other hand, and this is the contrast, a majority also demands a greater intervention of the State for the imposition of public order”, he adds.
More than indications about who benefits or harms in electoral terms, for Reina this “change in the climate of the times” could define the consensus or challenges that the next government that emerges from the October elections must reach. “That does not mean that this government has to go in this or that direction, but that it must take it into account: if it wants to go against it, it knows the size of the wave that it is going to encounter. If you want to go in that direction, you know the current that will take you surfing or sailing faster ”he adds.
Inclination to the private sector
“From my point of view, there are some elements that speak of a long-term turnaround, whatever government it is, it will be very difficult for it not to contemplate it. There is increasing resistance to the fact that the State is the one that resolves all issues of economic life, the emergence of the private sector in the provision of public services, can be seen in the question of business management, where 54% trust more a private company than in a public one, almost the same as for employment”, he recalls. This change is important because “let us not forget that there was a period in which public management or the nationalization of companies such as YPF or Aerolíneas had a high level of approval, there was an idea that the State is capable of managing more effectively and better than the private. That consensus seems to be diminishing and from that it would be very difficult for me to think that the next government can create public companies, with a high level of support from the population. If it is easier for me to think of a privatist turn, in a government agenda” Reina points out.
Security: order claim
In the area of security, Reina highlights that “there is a demand for the State to intervene more forcefully in the establishment of public order through two things: increasing the penalties and having a greater presence of the security forces on the street.” However, contrary to some libertarian visions, “what there is no demand for is that the state deregulate the issue so that each one can defend themselves on their own. The State implies this, it is a tacit pact in which we cede the application of individual force so that someone protects us. And what is interesting with the proposal for the free export of arms is that there is a very clear rejection of this legislation, which in other countries (such as the US or Brazil) is much more accepted, a surrender of state power. to the private On the contrary, here there is a demand from the private sector that the State have greater power to precisely establish public order”, points out the researcher.
Liberties: opinions shared
In terms of freedoms and rights, the study asked questions on seven issues that usually generate disputes between values. Three of them had an important consensus in their responses: homoparental adoption (59% support), surrogacy (58% agreement) and the possibility of euthanasia (72% endorsement). On the other hand, legalizing sex work (54% rejected), decriminalizing marijuana use (63% rejected) and extending inclusive language (72% against) did not gather broad social support.
In the case of Comprehensive Sexual Education, a majority of urban support was glimpsed (41% support), but as it moves away from metropolitan areas, the population demands more for the co-responsibility of families in discussing the issue (30% endorsement).
In the case of abortion, for example, despite the approval of the Voluntary Interruption of Pregnancy law, the debate does not seem settled: 59% were partially or totally against its application (with a strong incidence of JxC voters or LLA) and 41% in favour, with greater support from UP or left-wing voters.
“ I believe that the topic of the law has been highly politicized and partisan, let’s say that it has become part of the discussion of the political trenches among the Argentine population. When a topic of this style in the public debate has so many contrasting voices and so many people position themselves to defend it for or against it, it ends up being a debate that is not so closely linked to the law itself, but rather whether you assimilate with the parties and people who expose them. They are positions that create political identities, not just social positions.
Both the voluntary termination of pregnancy and the inclusive language are representative of this. For example, inclusive language is a position in which the support of the voters of the Union for the Fatherland is quite uniform, with a greater or lesser level of acceptance, but in the other parties the rejection is almost monolithic. They are highly politicized topics of public debate, unlike euthanasia or homoparental adoption, where the support and rejection are not so partisan, ”says the political scientist Reina.
* The Pulsar study was carried out among 1,000 cases nationwide, between May 5 and 16 of this year, probabilistic (CATI) through a telephone survey, 70% to cell phones and 30% landlines. There were quotas by sex, age and educational level. The sample covered areas of CABA, Buenos Aires province, Central, NOA, NEA, Cuyo and Patagonia provinces. In the latter case, populations of Neuquén-Plottier, Gran Santa Rosa, Bariloche, Cipolletti and Esquel were surveyed.