They go out to look for almost 60 thousand Cordovans who did not vote in June

50

A good part of the mobilization that will take place in the next few hours in the city of Córdoba is motivated by mathematics. In the provincial election on June 25, Hacemos Unidos defeated Juntos por el Cambio by 56,219 votes in the provincial capital, where 333,480 voted in favor of Martín Llaryora over the 277,216 who favored Luis Juez.

But that account will not be linear this Sunday, when Rodrigo de Loredo and Daniel Passerini face each other for the capital’s mayor. In this scenario, the key data is another: 364,307 residents did not vote in that election, behavior that led to electoral participation at 67.7%.

In the hypothesis that the result will be adjusted, as Hacemos Unidos supposes, it becomes a central element that the concurrency increases considerably. A desirable number for Peronism is 73%.

This does not seem like an exorbitant percentage: in the 2019 and 2015 provincial elections, voter turnout was 73.1 and 74.6%, respectively. To reach that percentage, there should be 59,048 more voters than in June, to complete 825,328 voters.

Although he did not provide concrete facts, De Loredo warned in his closing campaign that the ruling party will activate a “clientelistic machine” in an attempt to achieve that objective.

For all this, participation will be the first dispute on this election Sunday.

The 45 cities of the city

Putting the magnifying glass on the 45 largest circuits in the city, where 70% of the voters are concentrated, is a good exercise to understand how the party apparatuses are working and where they can look for the votes they lack to “break the trend” or “consolidate the advantage”. These are neighborhoods with more than 10,000 voters, true cities within the city.

A first conclusion from these territories is that, although there are nuances, where Together for Change won there were more voters than where Hacemos Unidos won. In other words: in the circuits where the opposition prevailed, the electoral ceiling is closer than in those where the ruling party became strong.

It can be seen in the graph: there are more red dots, which represent a participation below 65%, in the blue sector, which concentrates the neighborhoods where Martín Llaryora won.

In the global count of 45 neighborhoods: Together for Change won 10 in the provincial election, by a difference of 7,783 votes; and in the remaining 35, Hacemos Unidos prevailed by 44,788.

Of those 45 neighborhoods, the most important due to its electoral weight is Villa Azalais, where with a 64% participation, the ruling party won the election by 3,259 votes, although with the “absenteeism” of 11,556 residents. Out of that total, the pressure for them to vote will fall on the 2,893 people who would take participation to 73%.

The neighborhood where Hacemos Unidos made its biggest difference in the provincial election was Argüello Norte, whose result broke the trend of Together for Change in section 14. In that circuit, Llaryora won by 5,014 votes. There, 62% of the register voted, so to stretch the participation to 73 percent, 2,146 residents must join tomorrow’s vote.

In Alta Córdoba, the main circuit that Luis Juez won, the difference in his favor was just 153 votes, with a participation of 68.2%. To extend the attendance to 73%, 1,046 neighbors should be added.

Where Together for Change won (in addition to Alta Córdoba, Colón, Nueva Córdoba, Observatorio, the First and Third sections, Las Flores, Santa Ana, Villa Revol, San Martín, Las Palmas, General Paz, Los Naranjos, Parque Capital and Manantiales), the participation was 67.3%. To extend it to 73%, 14,318 voters should be added.

Where Hacemos Unidos won, the turnout was slightly lower, 66.5%, but in the hypothesis of taking it to 73%, it would imply adding 32,708 voters.

In this universe of neighborhoods, in nine the participation was less than 65 percent: Villa Azalais, José Ignacio Díaz, Villa El Libertador, Alto Alberdi, Argüello Norte, Pueyrredón, Bella Vista, Residencial San Roque, San Vicente and Villa Urquiza. The guns of the device are pointed there for this Sunday.

On the other hand, in Manantiales (Ciudadela circuit), Parque Capital, Parque Horizonte and Los Naranjos, participation was 73% or more, so there are few neighbors “to look for” on Sunday.

The devices running

With these numbers, the apparatuses of both coalitions are betting on a massive mobilization on Sunday, with the aim of “guaranteeing that the same thing is at the polls.”

Analysts, pollsters and leaders with territorial experience agree that “the apparatus” can mobilize between 1.5 and 2% of the electorate, which in the case of the city of Córdoba would be between 12,300 and 16,500 people if participation reaches 73%.

“Placing the election is useful if the others are not going to vote,” says a territorial chief. The appreciation is valid for any of the tribes that will dispute the municipal power this Sunday. “We always bet on getting all of ours to vote and that the others do not go,” remarks a leader of the opposing space.

In fact, other factors will intervene in the mobilization: although urban transport will be free between 6 and 20, the diffusion that there will be no penalties for non-attendance could discourage participation in this election that falls on the last day of the July holidays.

On the other hand, in both spaces they agree that there is a “militant mysticism” in the air created from a heroic narrative that motivates the militancy: if Rodrigo de Loredo wins, radicalism will once again lead the city that governed in six periods between 1983 and 2019, and will put a candidate for governor on the provincial stage.

If Daniel Passerini wins, Peronism will feel that it will stop “governing on loan” the provincial capital, where he arrived in 2019 as a “couple” of Juan Schiaretti; a result that would consolidate the plebiscite character of the June 25 election, when the people of the capital made Martín Llaryora governor.