The experts, unfortunately often ignored, had warned us: the respiratory virus season this year will be long, indeed very long, and will affect a large number of Italians. Until the end of April. Very accurate forecasts given that according to the latest bulletin of theHigher Institute of Health the Italians put to bed byinfluenza or from flu-like syndrome viruses since the autumn they have reached the record figure of 13 million (of which over 300 thousand only in the week between the end of March and the beginning of April).
This is the highest number ever since the InfluNet epidemiological surveillance system of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità was established 23 years ago. For comparison, there were 8.7 million bedridden people in the 2017-2018 season. The duration of the 2022-23 season is also surprising.
THE ANOMALY
We are in late April and there are still new cases of flu and similar syndromes, to be precise 5.1 per thousand adults and 15.4 cases per thousand children, even if in recent days there has been a clear decline in new cases. In short, if the flu is a great Christmas classic, at Easter (and beyond) it represents a beautiful and good anomaly.
At the moment, only in Molise and in the Autonomous Province of Trento is the situation beginning to normalize. An extraordinary circulation also for other respiratory viruses, such as the respiratory syncytial virus which has heavily affected especially the youngest.
«In this very long season, which started early, in the 42nd week of the year and not the usual 48th, explains Claudio Cricelli, president of the Italian Society of General Medicine we have seen not only the influenza virus, in particular that A, compared to B, but also many other respiratory viruses: Sars CoV-2, the respiratory syncytial virus, and adenoviruses, colds . We are now observing a slow and progressive decline in infections, while still remaining above the epidemic threshold, in particular, as regards children”.
In short, a season with an early start, but also a long-lasting one given that the descent is very slow and this out-of-season queue seems to never run out. Experts predict that there will be new cases of flu until the end of April, in short, until the spring bridges. And this may not be an exception. “It is necessary to monitor the situation – he says Massimo Andreoni, Scientific Director of the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical Diseases – to understand if we are dealing with a unicum or if the current situation risks becoming more and more frequent. During the pandemic, the rate of all respiratory infections has been reduced thanks to the anti-coronavirus containment measures. But this has also reduced the circulation of other viruses, leaving the population unprotected, especially the younger and unvaccinated, against other viruses”.7
THE SCHOOLS
But not only. In fact, bacteria, such as the formidable, also kept us company Streptococcus of group A, circulated abundantly among kindergarten and primary school children. In the US, epidemiologists speak of “an unprecedented number of streptococcus A infections among children”. And it is a disease that should not be underestimated, also due to the consequences it could have on the joints, kidneys and heart valves.
«In the last quarter of 2022 – remember Anthony R. Floresdirector of the Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at McGovern Medical School in Houston and author of a recent article on the subject published in Clinical Infectious Diseases – the number of recorded infections, including invasive ones, was far higher than expected, with very high numbers even in the first quarter of 2023. If a pediatrician visits a child who has a sore throat or a rash such as scarlet fever, he should always suspect a Streptococcus infection and act accordingly ».
THE MONITORING
Good news comes instead from the Covid front. According to weekly monitoring by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the Ministry of Health, the incidence of cases is slightly but constantly decreasing: from 31 March to 6 April there were 34 for every 100,000 inhabitants, against 37 for every 100,000 the previous week. And even if the RT (transmissibility index), calculated on symptomatic cases, has gone back to 1, marking an increase compared to the previous week, Gianni Rezza, director of Prevention of the Ministry assures that “it is completely under control”.
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