“Arcturus” on the rise: Experts are on the alert for 3 reasons

In India, the number of cases continues to rise. According to reports from the portal, ” Indian Express The number of infections increased tenfold over the course of the month and has already spread far beyond the cities. In order to prevent a medical emergency, as was the case in previous waves, the Indian government even wants to conduct a precautionary exercise on hospital readiness in April, the reports Medium . It is intended to serve as a kind of inventory to see if there are enough beds, medicines, medical equipment, oxygen, etc. in the event of a new wave.

Arcturus has now been detected in many countries – including Germany

In addition to many countries such as the USA, Singapore, Australia, Japan, Great Britain, Italy, Denmark and Austria, Arcturus has already arrived in Germany. According to the weekly report from the Robert Koch Institute, six pieces of evidence were sent between January 30 and March 12. So still a long way from a worrying development. However, the RKI explains that hardly any samples are examined for variants in Germany.

Therefore, the big question is whether Arcturus can trigger a new worrying wave and send the number of cases skyrocketing here too. It would be possible, because the new variant has three key properties that make it potentially more dangerous than previous variants.

1. XBB.1.16 spreads faster than previous variants

The new variant Arcturus is a recombination of omicron subvariants. This is how XBB comes according to the German Apotheker-Zeitung ” DAZ.online “ probably from BA.2.10 and BA.2.75 and has already developed from it many times. XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 were already rampant around the world. The latter has been the dominant variant in the USA since December. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the XBB family is on the rise worldwide and has replaced the previously dominant variants BA.5 and BA.2 almost everywhere.

This is also the case in Germany. Loud current weekly report of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the total proportion of the recombinant omicron variant XBB.1 including all sublines in Germany is already 61 percent. BA.5, on the other hand, is only 20 percent, BA.2 14 percent.

The new XBB variant would have a growth advantage of 140 percent compared to the XBB1.5 variant, which was previously considered the fastest-spreading variant, the paper continues. Virologist Martin Stürmer sees it that way too. XBB.1.16 is a variant that can be extremely successful in spreading, he told the ” ZDF “.

2. New spike protein mutations make Arcturus more contagious

XBB.1.16 has numerous mutations in the spike protein that are also consistent with XBB.1.5. However, there are more new ones to come. One of them is the S486P mutation. It means that the virus can bind to the ACE2 receptor even better and ensures that the virus can penetrate the cells of the human body even faster. This would make XBB.1.16 even more contagious than other variants.

3. Arcturus may be able to bypass immunity

However, the most disturbing feature of Arcturus is the following: “XBB.1.16 has a number of other changes in the genome that not only affect the spike protein, but also the so-called ORF9b gene, which is involved in the suppression of the interferon response is involved,” explains Friedemann Weber, head of the Institute for Virology at the University of Giessen.

Interferons are messenger substances that are produced by infected cells to warn other cells of the infection and to initiate countermeasures. However, Sars-CoV-2 has a whole range of these so-called interferon antagonists, and ORF9b has not yet been one of the strongest representatives. Nevertheless, the variant could thereby undermine the immune system of vaccinated and recovered, which explains the sharp increase in infections in India.

Tipp: Costs secret – Corona vaccine doses: How many millions are currently being destroyed

Unclear if existing immunity is enough to slow down Arcturus

Hardly anything is known about the degree of disease caused by an infection with XBB.1.16. The similar XBB1.5 variant, for example, does not generate a higher burden of disease in infected people than other variants have done according to the current data. Although a 17 percent increase in the number of deaths from India has been reported since XBB.1.16, nobody knows how reliable these figures are and whether those infected died of or with Corona.

The decisive factor will therefore be how well our immune system can fight off the new variant. The epidemiologist Timo Ulrichs from Berlin does not rule out that XBB.1.16 could cause the pandemic to flare up again. However, the basic immunization of the population that has already been achieved would put us in a better position than in the early phase of the pandemic, emphasizes the researcher.

To what extent this will really help us with the possible spread of XBB.1.16, nobody can answer at the moment. “It is absolutely not clear to what extent the existing immunity is sufficient or is being circumvented, but attention is essential,” says Hajo Zeeb, head of the Prevention and Evaluation department at the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology (BIPS) when asked. “Since it is and remains a global event, one can only agree when looking at where new variants are spreading or are being found, as is the case in India,” he emphasizes.

Infection numbers in Germany are probably much higher than official RKI numbers

So far, the official number of corona cases in Germany has continued to decline. According to the RKI, the current 7-day incidence is 34.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. However, fewer and fewer cases are officially reported. The number of unreported cases should therefore be significantly higher. Thorsten Lehr from Saarland University also assumes this: “Corona’s reporting system is over,” he told the German Press Agency.

Corona itself is not over yet. Therefore, the true incidence would probably be around 1,000 to 2,000 cases, estimates Lehr. “We still have a lot of infections. They’re harmless, but they exist,” he said. According to his forecast, the current wave will peak in April and then subside. “Not because of any seasonality, I don’t believe in that anymore. But because another round of epidemics is over.”

However, Lehr cannot estimate what comes after that, it depends on the variant and how long our vaccination protection lasts. Nevertheless, he is also convinced that with around 40 million reported infections since the beginning of the pandemic a good three years ago plus unreported cases, we have a “relatively high” immunity in the population – almost everyone is likely to have come into contact with Sars-CoV-2 at some point to have come In principle, this is an advantage, even if the variants differ.