In one week, new infections increased by 51.9%, confirming increases that have already been underway for two weeks. There is also an increase in hospitalizations both in intensive care and in non-critical areas. “While waiting for the new Executive to be fully operational, the risk we have already feared is materializing: yet another race in pursuit of the virus that compromises the health and life of the most vulnerable people and delays health care for patients with other pathologies ”, says the president Cartabellotta. THE TABLES.
06 OTT –
For Gimbe we are facing a new wave and the + 51.9% of new infections contracted in the last week that follows constant increases in the previous 14 days also testify to it.
There is also an increase in hospitalizations both in intensive care and in non-critical area wards. In short, the pandemic has far from gone. But let’s get to the details of this week’s numbers.
GIMBE monitoring detects in the week 28 September-4 October 2022, compared to the previous one, a significant increase in new cases (244.353 vs 160.829) (figure 1) and a decrease in deaths (281 vs 307) (figure 2). Currently positive cases are also growing (491,811 vs 444,389), people in home isolation (486,842 vs 440,608), hospitalizations with symptoms (4,814 vs 3,653) and intensive care (155 vs 128) (figure 3).
In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded:
- Deaths: 281 (-8.5%), of which 6 referred to previous periods
- Intensive care: +27 (+21.1%)
- Hospitalized with symptoms: +1,161 (+ 31.8%)
- Home isolation: +46.234 (+ 10.5%)
- New cases: 244,353 (+ 51.9%)
- Currently positive cases: +47,422 (+ 10.7%)
New cases. “For the third consecutive week – he declares Nino Cartabellotta, President of the GIMBE Foundation – there is an increase in new cases that mark a further leap (+ 51.9%): from just under 161,000 to over 244,000, with a 7-day moving average of almost 35,000 cases per day “(figure 4). The increase concerns, albeit heterogeneously, all Regions (from + 18.4% in Sardinia to + 132% in Valle D’Aosta) (table 1) and all Provinces except Crotone (-2.4 %): from + 9% in Cagliari to + 132% in Aosta. The incidence exceeds 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 35 Provinces: Biella (857), Vicenza (809), Trento (786), Bolzano (786), Udine (759), Belluno (751), Verbano-Cusio-Ossola ( 736), Sondrio (704), Padua (696), Treviso (631), breaking latest news (630), Verona (625), Como (625), Trieste (619), Venice (618), Novara (615), Perugia ( 610), Rovigo (594), Cuneo (591), Chieti (582), Turin (576), Forlì-Cesena (571), Terni (558), Fermo (555), Macerata (546), Pordenone (544), Lecco (544), Asti (539), Ascoli Piceno (537), Teramo (527), Ravenna (516), Vercelli (514), Rimini (508), Rieti (501) and L’Aquila (501) (table 2 ).
Reinfections. According to the latest report from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, over 1.09 million reinfections were recorded in Italy in the period 24 August 2021-28 September 2022, equal to 6.2% of the total cases. Their incidence in the week 22-28 September is 17.8% (59,172 reinfections), an increase compared to the previous week (15.8%).
Testing. There was an increase in the number of total tampons (+ 20.6%): from 1,066,571 in the week 21-27 September to 1,286,485 in the week 28 September-4 October. In particular, rapid buffers increased by 23.7% (+203.029) and molecular buffers by 8.1% (+16.885) (figure 5). The 7-day moving average of the positivity rate rises from 8.8% to 1.7% for molecular buffers and from 16.4% to 20.2% for rapid antigens (Figure 6).
Hospitalizations. “On the hospital front – says Marco Mosti, Operations Director of the GIMBE Foundation – after more than two months of decline, there is a reversal of the trend in intensive care (+ 21.1%), and a clear jump (+ 31.8% ) of hospitalizations in the medical area “. In absolute terms, the COVID beds in the critical area, after reaching the minimum of 125 on 25 September, rose to 155 on 4 October; in the medical area, after reaching the low of 3,293 on 24 September, they reached 4,814 on 4 October (figure 7). As of 4 October, the national employment rate by COVID patients was 7.6% in the medical area (from 3.8% in Sardinia to 23.2% in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano) and 1.7% in the area critical (from 0% in Basilicata, Molise and Valle d’Aosta to 4.6% in Friuli Venezia-Giulia) (figure 8). “Admissions to intensive care – points out Mosti – after touching their lowest since July 2021 last week, have almost doubled with a 7-day moving average of 21 admissions / day vs 11 admissions / day” (figure 9).
Deaths. Deaths continue to decrease: 281 in the last 7 days (of which 6 referring to previous periods), with an average of 40 per day compared to 44 in the previous week.
Vaccines: new vaccinated. In the week 28 September-4 October the number of new vaccinates fell: 1,167 compared to the 1,310 of the previous week (-10.9%). Of these, 34.1% is represented by the 5-11: 398 range, with a reduction of 15.9% compared to the previous week. Among the over 50s, who are more at risk of serious illness, the number of new vaccinated people fell to 299 (-9.7% compared to the previous week) (figure 10).
Vaccines: unvaccinated people. As of 5 October (updated 06.16), 6.81 million people over the age of 5 have not received even one dose of the vaccine (figure 11), of which:
- 5.84 million currently vaccinated, equal to 10.1% of the audience (from 7.6% in Lazio to 13.8% in Valle D’Aosta);
- 0.97 million temporarily protected as they have been cured of COVID-19 for less than 180 days, equal to 1.7% of the audience (from 1.1% in Valle D’Aosta to 2.5% in Marche).
Vaccines: age range 5-11. As of 5 October (update 06.16), 2,602,337 doses were administered in the 5-11 year-old age group: 1,406,513 received at least 1 dose of vaccine (of which 1,286,655 completed the vaccination cycle), with a coverage rate national to 38.5% with clear regional differences: from 21.1% of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano to 53.9% of Puglia (figure 12).
Vaccines: third dose. As of 5 October (update 06.16) 40,164,920 third doses were administered with a 7-day moving average of 2,022 administrations per day. According to the official audience (no. 47,703,593), updated as of May 20, the national coverage rate for third doses is 84.2%: from 78.3% in Sicily to 88.1% in Lombardy . 7.54 million people have not yet received the dose booster (figure 13), of which:
- 5.32 million can receive it immediately, equal to 11.2% of the audience (from 8.1% in Lombardy to 17.8% in Sicily);
- 2.22 million cannot receive it immediately as they have been healed for less than 120 days, equal to 4.6% of the audience (from 2.2% in Valle D’Aosta to 6.4% in Abruzzo).
Vaccines: fourth dose. According to the provisions of the Circular of the Ministry of Health of 23 September 2022, the audience for the second recall (fourth dose) is 19.1 million people: of these, 13.9 million can receive it immediately, 1.8 million are not immediately eligible as they have been healed for less than 120 days and 3.4 million have already received it. As of 5 October (update 06.16), 3,377,076 fourth doses have been administered, with a moving average of 15,924 doses per day, an increase compared to 12,799 last week (+ 24.4%) (figure 14). The national coverage rate for the fourth doses remains at stake, settling at 17.7% compared to 17% in the previous week, with clear regional differences: from 7.7% in Sicily to 28.8% in Emilia Romagna (figure 15 ).
“The clear recovery of viral circulation – underlines Cartabellotta – involves the entire national territory and is already making its effects felt on hospitalizations in the medical area and, to a lesser extent, in intensive care. At the beginning of this new wave, the concern is strong for various factors: the vaccination campaign is essentially stopped, the coverage of the fourth dose for the elderly and the frail does not take off, the flu season is coming and on public transport we said goodbye to ‘ mandatory mask “.
“But even more – he continues – the absence of a preparation plan for the autumn-winter season, repeatedly invoked by the GIMBE Foundation, is worrying: the circular of the Ministry of Health with indications for the management of the SARS-CoV epidemic -2, which seemed to be about to be published, was unjustifiably blocked, demonstrating that in this phase of institutional transition, political opportunism prevails over the protection of public health ”.
“And while waiting for the new Executive to be fully operational, the risk already feared by the GIMBE Foundation is materializing: yet another race in pursuit of the virus that compromises the health and life of the most vulnerable people and delays health care for patients with other pathologies. This is why the GIMBE Foundation asks Minister Speranza to immediately publish the circular on pandemic management and reaffirms the 5 fundamental actions recommended by WHO Europe: to increase vaccination coverage (with three doses) in the general population; offer the fourth dose to people at risk 120 after the third dose; promote the use of masks indoors and on public transport; ventilate crowded public spaces, such as schools, offices, bars and restaurants, public transport; apply rigorous therapeutic protocols for people at risk of serious illness ”, concludes Cartabellotta.
06 October 2022
© All rights reserved
Other articles in Studies and Analysis
