Cases quintupled by 1 August. Like an avalanche. Like a movie you’ve already seen where you rewind the film and go back. When we were already thinking about a Covid free summer, here we are again in the nightmare of increasing infections. And all because of a variant – the Delta – extraordinarily contagious. But also because of a non-compact front of vaccinated people that means that the most contagious variant finds many vulnerable people, and infects them. And that they then infect others. This is why the alarm that comes fromEuropean ECDC, the Center for Disease Prevention and Control, is scary but not surprising: between now and the first week of August increases in both infections and deaths are expected for 20 countries. They will increase up to fivefold. It is already happening in Israel, a country with record numbers of vaccinations, where Delta has arrived and has begun to hit the unvaccinated or those who had only the first dose: so far, in fact, all the studies confirm that those who are fully immunized, with the two doses for vaccines that include two, is protected from disease (but not from infection, because – let’s remember, vaccines protect against serious illness and hospitalization).
But let’s go back to the numbers, which as always speak for themselves. The ECDC report used model predictions Ensemble produced for each EU / See country on 12 July 2021 by the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub which provide 4-week forecasts for weeks 28 to 31. At the moment we are in week 28 (12-18 July) and the forecasts arrive through week 31 (August 2-8). The ECDC expects an incidence of over 420 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants for the week ending August 1, compared to less than 90 last week. And, for the week ending August 8, its furthest projection, the ECDC expects a further progression to over 620 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Cases of hospitalizations and deaths are also expected, although less numerous, thanks to vaccination campaigns. To date, hospitalization remains stable in most countries but the number of deaths associated with Covid-19 is expected to again exceed 10 per million inhabitants (last week it was 6.8).
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Although these projections remain epidemiological hypotheses, the level corresponds to that observed during the peaks of autumn 2020 and April 2021, according to data from the EU agency. The number of hospitalizations and deaths should increase less rapidly, according to the ECDC, thanks in particular to the vaccination campaign: the number of deaths linked to Covid-19 should once again exceed the threshold of 10, compared to 6.8 last year. week.
In Italy
The Delta variant is also on the rise in Italy and worries insiders. Our Higher Institute of Health, this morning, underlined the importance – in the face of an increase in cases even in countries with high vaccination coverage – of carrying out a capillary tracing and sequencing of cases.
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“It is a priority to achieve high vaccination coverage and the completion of vaccination cycles in all eligible people – they warn – with particular regard to people at risk of serious illness, as well as to reduce viral circulation and the possible resurgence of symptomatic cases supported by variants on the basis of ECDC data and forecasts, the presence of outbreaks caused by the Delta viral variant in Italy and the current vaccination coverage, it is advisable to maintain high attention, as well as apply and comply with the measures necessary to avoid a increased viral circulation “, they conclude. Nor does it reassure the WHO alarm yesterday, which foresees the arrival of new, and more dangerous, variants.
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